There has been a lot of discussion recently, going back to the fallout from the Nate McLouth trade, over when, if ever, is “now” for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The consensus answer to this question is that the Pirates future, the contender that has been strived for since 1992, will come in 2011 or ‘12.  I base this conclusion not on any one discussion, but based on the sum total of everything I’ve seen, read, and heard about the subject over recent weeks.  One such example of this, but hardly the only one is this Dejan Kovacevic piece that includes interviews of Neal Huntington, Frank Coonelly, and Bob Nutting.  It draws the following answer to my questions, “Some internally speak of such a possible convergence [of talent at the major league level] in 2011, but there are far too many variables for that to be firm.”  Additionally, there is a thread of comments on Rocco DeMaro’s facebook page (June 12th, 10:58 PM, must be registered and a friend of Rocco to read) with lots of discussion around the subject and possible 2011/12 lineups.  So if the future is only 2 years away, lets take a look at the Pirates current roster and minor league talent, and try to see what we can determine about who the core is when the future comes.  I don’t expect everything I’m about to write to hold true in 2011.  My goal here is basically just to give a general idea of who from the current club is still going to be around, who in the minor leagues now is likely to be in Pittsburgh then, and to point out positional voids.  Here goes nothing.

Starting Rotation

With Brad Lincoln’s utter dominance of AA, and recent promotion to AAA, it seems that he will be the cornerstone in the bucs rotation of the future.  Charlie Morton’s performance in Pittsburgh has been impressive so far, but it is a very small sample size.  His stuff is good enough to make one think he too is part of the future.  While neither of these two seem certain (Lincoln has yet to start in Indy, Morton has pitched 6 total innings in Pittsburgh), if 2011 or ‘12 is to be when the Pirates become competitive, these two almost certainly have to be part of the rotation then.  Beyond that though, there are far more questions than answers.

Who is the real Zach Duke?  Is it the Duke of 2005 and for stretches so far this year, or is the Zach Duke of ‘06-’08 the real one?  The answer to that question will determine if he stays or not.  I’m a big Zach Duke supporter and really wan’t to see the ‘05 Duke back.  I had him on one of my fantasy teams then, and I really want him to be a fantasy stud, and a stud for the Pirates in the near future.  But looking at the statistics, he is not the pitcher this year that he was in 2005, and that half season looks more and more like an anomaly.  In 2005, Duke had a FIP of 3.00, this year its 4.21.  In ‘05, his K/BB ration was 2.52, this year its 2.04. Finally, in 2005, Duke’s BABIP was .296, very close to the magic number of .300 that most pitchers usually regress to.  This year, its .268.  While I think its easy to use statistics to lie, and any of these numbers in isolation would not be enough to convince me, all of these numbers together have.  In 2005, Zach Duke was an incredibly effective pitcher, and hitters never really adjusted to him that season.  He regressed in the following 3 years as batters adjusted.  This year he is an improved pitcher over those 3 bad years, but his numbers this year are far better now than they almost certainly will be when the year is over, just based on a natural regression to  the mean.  Ultimately, I don’t believe Zach Duke is part of the rotation of the future.  I hope I’m wrong on this one.

Paul Maholm pitches to contact, but he’s not dominant.  I think that’s fine on a winning team if he’s the 4th starter.  When his sinker is working, he has the stuff to look very good at times, but in his last few starts his sinker has not been good, and without that hes just not a very effective pitcher.  But I do think on the whole, he is a valuable piece on the back end of a winning major league rotation.  Given that he is signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012, I think he will still be here, but that’s far from a safe bet.

That leaves 2 spots left to fill.  There are certainly pitchers already in the low levels of the system that could ultimately fill those spots, or they could be filled by players not yet in the system.  Of guys already in the system, here are 2 possible names to watch.

Jeff Locke – acquired in the McLouth trade and currently at HiA Lynchburg.  He could take one of those spots, but from what I’ve read he still has control problems, so hes too far away to project what he looks like 2 or 3 years from now.

Rudy Owens – He is putting up great numbers at LoA West Virginia this year, but its LoA.  Basically, its the same as Jeff Locke, he’s entirely too far away to project where he is 2 or 3 years from now.

Bullpen

Predicting Major League bullpen’s is an impossible task.  I don’t even want to speculate.  Danny Moskos?  Michael Dubee?  Donnie Veal?  Honestly, anything could happen here and I would not be surprised.  The one limb I’m willing to go out on here, the closer will not be Matt Capps.  He throws entirely too straight to be a dominant closer for a contending team.  While he is effective and attacks hitters, which is a nice trait in a reliever, I don’t see him as the closer beyond 2010, unless no better option develops.

Catcher

The two options here appear to be either current starter Ryan Doumit or 2009 no. 1 pick Tony Sanchez.  Doumit’s bat is a plus behind the plate.  He’s a switch hitter with power, and a career .798 OPS.  But he has also been plagued by injuries his entire career, and this season is no exception.  With Tony Sanchez considered to be very advanced defensively, and the surprising performances this year of Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he is traded this off-season or at next years trading deadline.  Anyway, it seems safe to assume, if he develops as expected, that Tony Sanchez is the catcher of the future.  I’d like to raise on more point about Doumit before moving on.  It is possible that he is moved out from behind the plate, likely to either RF or 1B.  If that happens, its possible that both Sanchez and Doumit are part of the future.

Middle Infield

The two current middle infield starters, Jack Wilson at SS and Freddy Sanchez at 2B are both, to differing degrees, being consider for trades this year.  Sanchez is a free agent after this year, with a club option for $8M that would kick in automatically if he reacher 635 PAs this year or if he makes the all-star team and has 600 ABs.  Based on his current pace, barring injury, Sanchez should hit that 635 mark and the option will kick in.  While Sanchez is a nice player (.319/.358/.493) , he is already 31 and isn’t getting any younger or better.  He is basically at his peak value, and $8 Million is a lot to pay to a player who isn’t part of the future, so I expect him to be traded either at the trade deadline or this offseason.

Wilson has seemingly been on the trade block for 3 years now, and this year is no different.  But just like years past, he is more valuable to Pittsburgh than he is to other clubs due to the dearth of options at short.  Brian Bixler has proved himself to not be an everyday Major League shortstop.  The same goes for Ramon Vazquez.  Wilson could be a free agent after this year, but the Pirates have an option for next year worth $8.4M.  Wilson’s one plus skill is his glove, and at 31, its due to decline soon, don’t expect them to pick that option up and expect him to be traded too.

So then who plays the middle infield spots in 2010, let alone 2011.  Brian Friday? eh.  Shelby Ford? blah.  Jim Negrych? maybe.  The point I’m making here is that I don’t have an answer, and there doesn’t seem to be any sort of consensus as to who fills these two spots in 2011.  This is obviously the biggest whole in the Pirates system.  This will need to be addressed before the Pirates can be a consistent contender.

Corner Infield

Pedro Alvarez is going to fill one of these 2 spots.  Some people believe his glove is good enough to stay at third base, and that’s where he will play as a bucco.  Others believe he is a suspect defensive third baseman and will have to move across the diamond to play at the big league level.  I’ve yet to see him play (I’m hoping too soon now that he’s in Altoona), so I can’t really provide any input on this question, but lets consider both possibilities.  If he has to move to first, the most likely option at third is Andy LaRoche.  He’s only 25, and after getting off to a horrendous start (.091/.167/.091 through 9 games), hes been knocking the ball all over the yard to the tune of .281/.352/.390 for the season.  If LaRoche can sunstain the average and onbase numbers, and improve a bit on the slugging, he becomes a legit bat at third and moving Alvarez to first is an easy call.  In the scenario where LaRoche’s bat continues to develop, it even seems possible that Alvarez is moved because LaRoche is blocking him.  Ultimately, Alvarez is more valuable as a third baseman than he is as a first baseman, and if he can play that position, look for him to do so.  In that scenario, even if LaRoche’s bat develops, it seems likely that he gets traded and a first baseman is found through that very speculative trade, or through some other means.  I’m going with the Alvarez/LaRoche scenario, but I’m entirely comfortable with either scenario.

Outfield

This is probably the easiest position to predict.  Andrew McCutchen is in center now, and he will be there 2 years from now.  Lets move onto the corners.  Jose Tabata, despite his crazy wife, is probably in one of the corners.  He’s only 20 now, so he isn’t yet showing the power you would like to see from a corner outfielder.  But he projects to be a solid to plus defensive outfielder with some power and I would guess he takes Tony Plush’s current spot in left.  That leaves just right field, which is a bit of a mystery, but there seem to be plenty of options.  As I said earlier, it could be Ryan Doumit.  If Brandom Moss can find his bat, it could be him.  It could also be the recently acquired Gorkys Hernandez.  There’s probably any number of other options internally, or it could be someone not yet in the Pirates system.  I’m not gonna pick a name here, its too wide open, but I think given the number of options, in the next 2 years a solid average to above average player can be found for RF.

My prediction

A starting rotation of Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Paul Maholm, and a player not yet under Pirates control (or Ross Ohlendorf, not detailed above because I’m already at 2000 words).  A lineup that includes Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Andy Laroche, Jose Tabata, Tony Sanchez,  an unnamed power hitting right fielder, and 2 middle infielders.  Add all of that up, and I think its the makings of a team that can finish above .500 and begin to contend a for division titles.