Now that Pedro Alvarez has been shut down and shipped off to Europe to compete with team USA, Pat Lackey over at whygavs has a post this morning asking an open question about Pedro Alvarez’s first minor league season:

How much does his high strikeout rate (129 Ks in 542 PAs) affect your opinion of him as a prospect? Do his struggles at Lynchburg still worry you? When do you expect to see him in Pittsburgh?

I guess it’s not fair if I don’t answer these questions myself; I have downgraded my expectations for him just a little bit after this year. I think he’s probably headed for a career in which he’s a little more one-dimensional (that is, power oriented) at the plate than we had originally hoped; maybe falling somewhere between Carlos Pena and Prince Fielder. That’s not a bad thing. Obviously both of those players provide the sort of thump that the Pirates need desperately even if they don’t generally hit for a high batting average. I think we’ll probably see him next year, maybe around June or July, but not before then because he’s got to prove he can hit Triple-A pitching without flailing at pitches out of the strike zone.

I find the question interesting, and thought I’d post my thoughts here rather than have them buried in the comments over on his blog.  For reference, here is his baseball-reference page with all his minor league numbers so far.

Do his struggles at Lynchburg still worry you?

In short, no.  I was worried about the struggles at Lynchburg when he was first promoted to AA and was struggling there for the first few weeks.  But once he found his second wind and began mashing the ball all over the place, I stopped worrying about what he did in A ball.

How much does his high strikeout rate (129 Ks in 542 PAs) affect your opinion of him as a prospect?

Certainly, the strikeouts aren’t a good thing. On the other hand, almost all power hitters have high K rates.  As long as he is drawing walks as well, which he is, I’m not too concerned.  Pat uses the strikeouts to make comps of Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena and while I don’t agree with Pena, I think Fielder is a perfect comp.  Pedro should wind up as a .280/.380/.550 player who hits 35-40 jacks a year.  Those are almost exactly Prince’s career averages.

When do you expect to see him in Pittsburgh?

Sometime around the all-star break next year sounds about right to me.  First, as Pat mentions, Pedro is going to have to prove he can hit AAA pitching.  But also, because his glove is a question mark.  This can go one of two ways, depending on what kind of condition he is in when he reports to spring training next year.  If he reports in good shape, he’s going to have to prove to management that the conditioning paid off and that he can stick at third base with the glove.  Conversely, if the body doesn’t get any better, he’s going to take some period of time to adjust to the other side of the diamond.  As I’ve written before, I think he winds up as a first baseman.  Considering how much a position change will deflate his value, that, not the strikeout or the slow start at Lynchburg, is the biggest disappointment of his inaugural professional season.