Bucco Fever

The Future of the Pirates Battery

May 25

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

First off, Neil Walker got called up today as a result of Steve Pearce’s injured ankle.  Pearce will go to the DL, but I expect when he comes off the DL Walker will stay, likely in place of Delwyn Young.

With that out of the way, I’d like to address the issues raised by everyone’s favorite post-gazette blogger about how the Pirates will approach the trading deadline.  He pretty much nails it by saying that Aki, Dotel and Donnely are likely to be shopped given their 1 year contracts.  It’s rather unlikely they will find anyone willing to trade for Aki unless, of course they are willing to eat his entire salary.  Don’t rule that possibility out, but even in that scenario, Iwamura goes from completely “un-tradeable” to “maybe tradeable to a contender looking for a backup infielder” so the return would still be minimal.

The most important part of Smizik’s post though is the futures of Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm.  All 3 are veteran’s who are due to make significant money in the next 2 years, and it will be interesting to see how the team handles each situation.  While it’s easy to lump them all together, I’d like to look at each on a case-by-case basis, as I’m sure The Pirates front office will do.

I’ve never been a big Ryan Doumit fan, his walk-off home run on Sunday notwithstanding.  He has a nice bat for the position he plays, but his often nightmare-ish defense combined with his inability to stay on the field has prevented me from ever growing too attached to him.  Catcher defense is a hard thing to measure, so I have a hard time comparing WAR numbers to salary.  For whatever it’s worth, he’s been worth exactly 1 win so far in 2010, which over an entire season more than justifies the $5.1 Million he is due next season.  If there was an adequate replacement available, I’d be all for getting what can be had fro Doumit while he’s healthy and producing.  But I don’t see Erik Kratz and Jason Jaramillo producing enough offensively on an already offensively challenged team to negate the loss of Doumit.  My gut feeling is he stays around til next year, at which point heir apparent Tony Sanchez should be further along in his minor league progression, to the point that his major league potential can be adequately evaluated.

Since Duke and Maholm are very similar pitchers, I’ll just address them together.  Let’s start with the premise that it would make little sense to get rid of both players.  On a winning team, a Pitcher if their ilk is very useful as a back of the rotation guy who gets ground balls in bunches and has a defense that turns them into outs.  Likewise though, I’m not of the opinion that it makes any sense to keep them both long term.  So if we have to pick one, who stays and who goes.

Duke will be in his 3rd arbitration year next year, and has posted seasons of 2.0 and 2.5 WAR in 2008 and 2009 and is on a similar pace in 2010.  That makes him about a 9 million dollar player, and using the standard 40/60/80 scale that means he should get around $7.2 Million in 2011.  After 2011, he will be a free agent.  Maholm will make $5.75 Million next year and the team has an option for 2012 worth 9.75 Million.  Despite what I said earlier about them being very similar players, I prefer Maholm over Duke based on their peripheral numbers.  Since 2007, Maholm has had a betted FIP and xFIP than Duke in every season.  He also has a slightly higher ground ball rate and a slightly better K rate.  In addition to that, since he is under contract rather than going through arbitration, he is a bit more cost controlled than Duke.  All of that makes Maholm the obvious choice to keep around if your only going to keep one.

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Lineup Construction

May 12

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

I’m just gonna be blunt about this one.  Today’s lineup against the Reds makes no sense.

There is absolutely no reason that Andy LaRoche, one of the teams best hitters, should be hitting 7th.  There is absolutely no reason that ‘Cutch, a prototypical lead-off hitter, should be coming up with 2 outs and no one on as the 3rd hitter so frequently does.  There is very little reason, beyond “tradition”, that the pitcher should be batting 9th (For reference, here is the Pirates “Ideal” lineup.  I used ZiPS(RoS) numbers from fangraphs, except for Duke, where I used career numbers because ZiPS hitting numbers aren’t provided for pitchers).  The Pirates started the season by doing these things.  They were following the math.  Granted, Cedeno isn’t an idea guy to turn the lineup over, but the Pirates personnel isn’t exactly ideal, so they were working with what they had and optimizing run production.  I was happy.  I’m not sure why the moved away from that, I’m guessing it had something to do with Aki’s awful start to the season and all the blowout losses, but whatever the reasoning is has lead to this monstrosity, and I just don’t get it.

I’m not quite sure how the day-to-day lineup is constructed.  My guess is that the front office, Neal Huntington and his team, are providing JR with their input and discussing the math with him, but that he is given freedom to shift things as he sees fit on a dialy basis.  Whatever the system is that leads to a lineup this bad needs to be changed, thats all I’m saying.

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Why Strikeouts Matter

Apr 30

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

It seems almost too obvious to say that strikeouts are important.  After all, anytime the ball is put in play, lots of variables immediately activate.  The defense could commit an error, runners can move up on a sacrifice or on an errant or ill advised throw.  By recording outs without the ball being in play, your obviously much better off.  But in case it wasn’t already clear, there are 2 situations from last nights game that illustrate that clearly.
Last nights starter, Brian Burress, didn’t record a lot of strikeouts and he was far from efficient.  He did manage to go 5.1 shutout innings by getting out of jams in the 3rd and fourth innings.  The Dodgers should have been able to score in both of those innings.  Getting out of the third unscathed was mostly the result of a fortunate call at second base when Clayton Kershaw tried to advance on a pitch in the dirt.  The 4th is a different story.  The Dodgers had runners on 2nd and 3rd with only one out.  By striking out Casey Blake on 3 pitches, Burress was able to induce a 2 out grounder from James Loney to end the inning.  I’m not going to say they definitely score without that K, but lets just say that organizational depth pitchers don’t usually get out of 2nd and 3rd, 1 out jams in 2 consecutive innings.
Now lets talk about Burres opposite number last night, Clayton Kershaw.  Like Burres he wasn’t exactly efficient last night, throwing 117 pitches over 6.1 IP and walking 4.  But the Pirates offense never got anything going, and only managed the 2 runs they did in the 1st inning as a result of Matt Kemp badly miss playing a Ryan Doumit single into a “triple”.  Kershaw’s 7 strikeouts prevented the Pirates from ever getting a rally going.  He stuck out at least one batter in 5 of the 7 innings he pitched in.  It’s that ability to get strikeouts that makes him the Dodgers ace.  The fact that no one on the Pirates current staff displays that ability is at least somewhat concerning.  I’m willing to bet that if this franchise ever does turn it around*, they will do so only once they find a true staff ace.  Go back through World Series teams and try to find one without a true ace.  Just in the last few years, the ‘09 Yanks had CC, the ‘08 Phils had Hammels, the ‘07 Red Sox had Beckett, I think you get the point.  Teams that compete at the highest levels do so with elite starting pitching.  At this point, and unfortunately for the foreseeable future, the Pirates don’t have that.
*By “turn it around” I don’t mean 82 wins.  I mean that they are in thick of the division race, competing for playoff spots, or dare I say even NL Pennants and World Series titles.

It seems almost too obvious to say that strikeouts are important.  After all, anytime the ball is put in play, lots of variables immediately activate.  The defense could commit an error, runners can move up on a sacrifice or on an errant or ill advised throw.  By recording outs without the ball being in play, your obviously much better off.  But in case it wasn’t already clear, there are 2 situations from last nights game that illustrate that clearly.

Last nights starter, Brian Burress, didn’t record a lot of strikeouts and he was far from efficient.  He did manage to go 5.1 shutout innings by getting out of jams in the 3rd and fourth innings.  The Dodgers should have been able to score in both of those innings.  Getting out of the third unscathed was mostly the result of a fortunate call at second base when Clayton Kershaw tried to advance on a pitch in the dirt.  The 4th is a different story.  The Dodgers had runners on 2nd and 3rd with only one out.  By striking out Casey Blake on 3 pitches, Burress was able to induce a 2 out grounder from James Loney to end the inning.  I’m not going to say they definitely score without that K, but lets just say that organizational depth pitchers don’t usually get out of 2nd and 3rd, 1 out jams in 2 consecutive innings.

Now lets talk about Burres opposite number last night, Clayton Kershaw.  Like Burres he wasn’t exactly efficient last night, throwing 117 pitches over 6.1 IP and walking 4.  But the Pirates offense never got anything going, and only managed the 2 runs they did in the 1st inning as a result of Matt Kemp badly miss playing a Ryan Doumit single into a “triple”.  Kershaw’s 7 strikeouts prevented the Pirates from ever getting a rally going.  He stuck out at least one batter in 5 of the 7 innings he pitched in.  It’s that ability to get strikeouts that makes him the Dodgers ace.  The fact that no one on the Pirates current staff displays that ability is at least somewhat concerning.  I’m willing to bet that if this franchise ever does turn it around*, they will do so only once they find a true staff ace.  Go back through World Series teams and try to find one without a true ace.  Just in the last few years, the ‘09 Yanks had CC, the ‘08 Phils had Hammels, the ‘07 Red Sox had Beckett, I think you get the point.  Teams that compete at the highest levels do so with elite starting pitching.  At this point, and unfortunately for the foreseeable future, the Pirates don’t have that.

*By “turn it around” I don’t mean 82 wins.  I mean that they are in thick of the division race, competing for playoff spots, or dare I say even NL Pennants and World Series titles.

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Game Notes: Bucs v. Reds

Apr 18

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

I was down at PNC this afternoon for an especially cold, windy, sometimes rainy Sunday afternoon game against the Reds.  The Pirates came away with the victory 5-3, and with it their first series sweep of the year.  Starter Paul Maholm was efficient over his 6.2 innings, striking out 5 and only allowing 2 runs.  Meanwhile, the offense only managed to do anything in one inning, the 4th, but that one inning netted all 5 Pirates runs, and would be enough for the win.

Octavio Dotel came in for the 9th and immediately allowed a Jay Bruce homer.  If you look at Dotel’s splits against lefties, the Bruse homerun isn’t really a surprise.  For his career, Dotel’s FIP against southpaws is 4.68, compared to 2.80 against righties.  In short, he has always struggled against left handed batters.  In a 3 run game with Bruce as the only lefty set to come up, I’m fine with using Dotel.  But in a tighter game, I think JR would be wise to go another direction against left handed batters.

On the bright side, Lastings Milledge seems to have something extra this year that I didn’t really see last year.  At the plate, he’s been mostly a single hitter, and that’s going to have to improve for him to stick as a corner outfielder.  However, he made several nice defensive plays today, plays I’m convinced he would not have made last season after coming over from Washington.

EDIT: I forgot to add that there were two fly balls to left that I found interesting in light of recent discussion on outfield positioning.  Without looking at my score book, I don’t know the innings in which they occurred but, there was one hit toward the north side notch that Milledge managed to corral due to his positioning.  Then later there was ball hit down the line that probably would have been an out were the outfield positioned “traditionally” but it turned into an RBI single due to the left-center shift the team employs at home.  Don’t try to divine any great wisdom from that, just take it as 2 anecdotal plays that occurred in one particular game.

Its also worth noting that this was my first game in my regular plan seats, since opening day I was over on the first base side.  My seats down in section 27 provide a nice view as well as easy bathroom and concession access.  All told, it was a great day at the ballpark despite the cold.

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End of Roadtrip Thoughts

Apr 14

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

The Pirates end their first roadtrip of the season, 6 west coast games, with an afternoon contest against the Giants.  This one will bump right up against the Penguins first playiff game, and both are being covered by FSN, so if it goes extra’s, chances are we won’t get to see the end of this one unfortunately.  If they can pull out a win today with Charlie Morton on the bump, the roadtrip will be a 3-3 success in my book.  Morton came out dealing early in his first start, the first game of this roadtip in Arizona, but then had a disastrous third inning and exited after just 3.1 IP and having allowed 8 runs.  He will obviously need to improve on that to get the Bucs back over .500.  He has the stuff to do it, after all he did strike out 6 in that all to short first outing, but he got in trouble by getting behind in counts and nibbling, so clearly his success or failure is going to be dictated by how aggressive he is on the mound.

To this point in the season, the team is 4-4, but I find it at least a little bit concerning that all 4 losses have all been by 6 runs or more.  That’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.  This team isn’t built to win high scoring games, so if they can’t hold opponents to 3 or 4 runs, they aren’t going to win very often.

Aki Iwamura is quickly becoming one of my favorite Pirates.  He almost always sees 5 or more pitches per turn, and has showing surprising power with 2 home runs.  He’s probably not going to slug .530 for the season, but his at-bats are can’t miss television at this point if your a Pirates fan.

Andrew McCutchen said in the Spring that he wanted to be more aggressive on the basepaths this season, and so far he’s done just that.  His 5 swipes, 0 caught, represent the NL lead in that category (Scott Podsednik has 6 in the AL).  While his performance at the plate hasn’t been great so far, he’s made up for that on the basepaths, and suddenly 60 bags seems very much within reason for the young center fielder.

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