Bucco Fever

Russ Branyan and Jeff Clement

Feb 21

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

Aside from meaningless calls for Bob Nutting to sell the team, one of the biggest complaints I’ve heard this off-season has been about giving the 1B job to Jeff Clement.  The line of argument goes something like this:  If management wants to preach accountability how can they just hand a key offensive position to a guy who has never proven himself, either offensively or defensively, at the major league level, especially when “proven” players like Russ Branyan and Hank Blalock are available cheaply as free agents, and the team has money to spend (based upon a comparison of last years opening day payroll to the current payroll).  Blalock remains unsigned, but Branyan just inked a deal with the Cleveland Indians, so I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compare some projections on Clement and Branyan, in light of their contracts, and see if it reveals anything worthwhile.  For the purposes of this exercise, I’m using CHONE projections, available at fangraphs.com.  I chose CHONE because it’s freely available at a public facing website, and while the exercise I go through below could be performed using a different projection system, or even an average of a bunch of projections, I think the ultimate conclusions are the same no matter which projections you use.
Before I jump into an analysis, lets just lay out the raw numbers.  CHONE projects Branyan to post a .243/.335/.497 line for 2010 with a wOBA of .359.  It (Is “It” the proper pronoun for a projection system?) also gives Clement a line of .264/.342/.460 and a .350 wOBA.  Branyan is clearly the superior offensive player with an OPS 30 points higher and a wOBA almost 10 points higher.  But how much are those offensive differences worth in terms of runs and wins?  Thats where this get’s interesting.
When you look at rate stats like those above, it is that important to remember that their impact on runs, and in turn wins, increases proportionally to the number of plate appearances a player logs.  I’m not sure how CHONE projects plate appearances, but it does so, projecting Clement for 402 and Branyan for 337, a difference of 65.  Those 65 trips to the plate serve to negate the entire offensive difference (and even a slight defensive advantage as well) between the two players, projecting them both as 1.2 win players.  I could probably stop there, say that both players are of equal value, and conclude that it would make no sense for the Pirates to pay Branyan $2 Million dollars this year when they can get the same production from Clement for the league minimum.  However, I’d like to go a bit deeper than that.
As I said, I have no idea how CHONE projects plate appearances, but I have to imagine that is a very volatile projection, especially for these two players.  Branyan logged 505 PAs last season, the first time he topped 400 since 2002.  Similarly, Clement has logged a grand total of 243 big league plate appearance in his career.  Granted he is being given the chance to prove himself as a capable first baseman, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to keep that job all year.  If Branyan’s back is healthy and he can duplicate last years durability, he’s obviously a lot more valuable than CHONE projects.  Similarly, if Clement can field his positional well enough to stick at first base, his batting totals are going to be higher than what CHONE projects.  Lets say both players manage 140 games, 550 PAs, then where do their values fall? By simply scaling the values fangraphs already provides, I came up with the following.  Over the course of a 550 PA season, Russ Branyan is a 2.1 win player, while Clement, over the same 550 PAs is a 1.6 win player.  If they both remain completely healthy and perform up to expectations, Branyan is worth only half a win, 5 runs more than Clement.
So, is that difference worth $1.5 Million, the difference between what the two players will make this season.  Actually yes.  This years free agent market has shown that a marginal win is worth about $3.5 Million dollars so in order to justify the salary difference, Branyan has to provide only an extra .43 wins.  But should the Pirates have signed him?  Probably not.  Given his injury history, it’s a very risky proposition to hope he can log enough playing time to provide that half a win over what Clement will give the team.  Further, The Bucs need to find out what they have in Clement sooner rather than later, so if he can’t muster being an everyday first baseman, they can find someone else capable of doing so..  He is either going to prove himself in the bigs this year, or prove once and for all that he’s just another AAAA player.  Bringing in someone like Branyan would prevent that from happening this year, and that would only serve to hurt this franchise in the long term, not help it.

Aside from meaningless calls for Bob Nutting to sell the team, one of the biggest complaints I’ve heard this off-season has been about giving the 1B job to Jeff Clement.  The line of argument goes something like this:  If management wants to preach accountability how can they just hand a key offensive position to a guy who has never proven himself, either offensively or defensively, at the major league level, especially when “proven” players like Russ Branyan and Hank Blalock are available cheaply as free agents, and the team has money to spend (based upon a comparison of last years opening day payroll to the current payroll).  Blalock remains unsigned, but Branyan just inked a deal with the Cleveland Indians, so I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compare some projections on Clement and Branyan, in light of their contracts, and see if it reveals anything worthwhile.  For the purposes of this exercise, I’m using CHONE projections, available at fangraphs.com.  I chose CHONE because it’s freely available at a public facing website, and while the exercise I go through below could be performed using a different projection system, or even an average of a bunch of projections, I think the ultimate conclusions are the same no matter which projections you use.

Before I jump into an analysis, lets just lay out the raw numbers.  CHONE projects Branyan to post a .243/.335/.497 line for 2010 with a wOBA of .359.  It (Is “It” the proper pronoun for a projection system?) also gives Clement a line of .264/.342/.460 and a .350 wOBA.  Branyan is clearly the superior offensive player with an OPS 30 points higher and a wOBA almost 10 points higher.  But how much are those offensive differences worth in terms of runs and wins?  Thats where this get’s interesting.

When you look at rate stats like those above, it is that important to remember that their impact on runs, and in turn wins, increases proportionally to the number of plate appearances a player logs.  I’m not sure how CHONE projects plate appearances, but it does so, projecting Clement for 402 and Branyan for 337, a difference of 65.  Those 65 trips to the plate serve to negate the entire offensive difference (and even a slight defensive advantage as well) between the two players, projecting them both as 1.2 win players.  I could probably stop there, say that both players are of equal value, and conclude that it would make no sense for the Pirates to pay Branyan $2 Million dollars this year when they can get the same production from Clement for the league minimum.  However, I’d like to go a bit deeper than that.

As I said, I have no idea how CHONE projects plate appearances, but I have to imagine that is a very volatile projection, especially for these two players.  Branyan logged 505 PAs last season, the first time he topped 400 since 2002.  Similarly, Clement has logged a grand total of 243 big league plate appearance in his career.  Granted he is being given the chance to prove himself as a capable first baseman, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to keep that job all year.  If Branyan’s back is healthy and he can duplicate last years durability, he’s obviously a lot more valuable than CHONE projects.  Similarly, if Clement can field his positional well enough to stick at first base, his batting totals are going to be higher than what CHONE projects.  Lets say both players manage 140 games, 550 PAs, then where do their values fall? By simply scaling the values fangraphs already provides, I came up with the following.  Over the course of a 550 PA season, Russ Branyan is a 2.1 win player, while Clement, over the same 550 PAs is a 1.6 win player.  If they both remain completely healthy and perform up to expectations, Branyan is worth only half a win, 5 runs more than Clement.

So, is that difference worth $1.5 Million, the difference between what the two players will make this season.  Actually yes.  This years free agent market has shown that a marginal win is worth about $3.5 Million dollars so in order to justify the salary difference, Branyan has to provide only an extra .43 wins.  But should the Pirates have signed him?  Probably not.  Given his injury history, it’s a very risky proposition to hope he can log enough playing time to provide that half a win over what Clement will give the team.  Further, The Bucs need to find out what they have in Clement sooner rather than later, so if he can’t muster being an everyday first baseman, they can find someone else capable of doing so..  He is either going to prove himself in the bigs this year, or prove once and for all that he’s just another AAAA player.  Bringing in someone like Branyan would prevent that from happening this year, and that would only serve to hurt this franchise in the long term, not help it.

Tags: ,

Zach Duke’s Late Season Drop Off

Feb 21

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

Chuck Finder posted over on the Post-Gazette’s PBC blog that Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan has suggested that SP Zach Duke wore down late last season, perhaps due to overwork.  Kerrigan specifically notes August first as the cut off date for where these troubles began, and based on raw ERA, that seems to bare out as Duke posted a 3.26 ERA before that date and a 5.80 ERA after.  I was curious, and wanted to see if the a similar differential existed in his FIP, or if such a large difference was caused, at least aprtially, by things beyond Duke’s control, ie some defensive regression due to 2 key middle infielders being traded.  Lucky for me, the formula to calculate FIP is here (yes I realize that formula isn’t perfect, as true FIP involves a league and season specific factor, and not a generic 3.2 scaling factor, but it will work for my purposes since were talking about one pitcher, in one league, during one season) and baseball-refernce.com makes available game logs with in context summations here.  using those 2 source, I came up with the following.

Pre Aug 1:  146.1 IP, 75 K, 35 BB, 13 HR, 4.05 FIP

Post Aug 1: 66.2 IP, 31 K, 14 BB, 4.85 FIP

So, did Duke’s true performance level get worse late in the season? Absolutely.  But was it as bad as raw ERA would indicate? No.  He wasn’t as good prior to August 1st as the 3.26 ERA would indicate, nor was he as bad after that date as the 5.80 ERA would indicate.  He was somewhere in the middle the whole time.

Note: While I can’t be entirely sure, I have reason to believe that the 2 month sample size post Aug 1 is too small to be statistically significant, and even the 4 month sample size prior may also be a bit too small to truly matter.  I’m publishing it despite being aware of that because the PBC blog post (linked above) peaked my interest enough to look up these numbers and I figured maybe someone else might have the same thoughts I did upon reading that post.

Tags:

Early Spring Injury News

Feb 18

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

After yesterdays post, in which I proclaimed there would likely be no major news this week, comes word from Bradenton of two previously undisclosed injuries that could affect the bullpen and bench spots I talked about yesterday.  This post, from mlb.com Pirates Beat Writer Jen Langosch, details an elbow injury to pitcher Joel Hanrahan and a knee injury to utility infielder Ramon Vazquez.

Vazquez is supposed to be ready for opening day, but if that scheduled gets pushed back some, that would open up an extra spot on the bench to open the year until Vazquez can go.  While some have speculated that he was on the fence to make the team to begin with, my personal feeling is that he was a lock for a bench spot due to his salary and veteran presence.  Either way, the injury may cloud his status a bit as we move toward opening day.

Hanrahan’s injury is much more serious, as he is scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews next week, which is almost never a good sign.  Hanrahan, one of the few bullpen holdovers from last season, will likely miss at least the beginning part of the season.  Hanrahan was projected to be a set-up man this season, and who fills that role is hard to say at this juncture, but at the very least it just makes the backend of the bullpen a little less certain and opens up an extra spot for one of the many NRIs.

Tags: , ,

A Very Brief 2010 Spring Training Preview

Feb 17

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

I apologize for the lack of posts lately, but there really isn’t much to write about.  Thee good news is that pitchers and catchers report today, and while there isn’t likely to be much news coming out of Bradenton this week other than the usual “best shape of my career” stuff, I thought I’d take the time to write a very brief Spring Training preview.

For a team that finished with 99 losses last year, it looks to be a surprisingly quiet spring with 4/5 of the starting rotation and 7 of the everyday 8 more or less locked in.  That does leave some competition around the fringes, and while I don’t really feel an in depth analysis is warranted here, I would like to spend a few words on each decision to be made between now and opening day.  As I see it, there is a starting job at SS to be won and a 5th starters job up for grabs.  There is also, assuming the Bucs go with a 5 man bench and 7 man bullpen as they have the past 2 years, 1 bench spot and by the same logic 3 bullpen jobs to be determined.

At short stop the incumbent is Ronny Cedeno, and it would seem he has the inside track to be the starter there on opening day.  But Bobby Crosby wasn’t brought in as one of the few free-agent signings this off-season just to ride the pine, so I suspect that if he excels in the spring and Cedeno struggles, he could quickly find himself penciled in as the everyday starter.  When Crosby was signed, my post focused on his injury issues, and my suspicion is that even if Crosby proves to be the better player and deserved starter, he will still be frequently spelled by Cedeno to try to keep Crosby fresh and avoid the injuries that have plagued him in years past.  That being said, Cedeno thrived at the plate after coming over via trade last year and, from what I can gather, that continued in Venezuela this winter.  Based on that, I think its reasonable to expect he will continue to hit in the spring and Crosby will have to earn his playing time.

Who actually wins the fifth starters job, to me, is almost irrelevant.  In a way, Daniel McCutchen and Kevin Hart are opposites on the mound.  McCutchen is a heady pitcher with good control but underwhelming stuff.  Hart, on the other hand, is a nibbler (even typing that word evokes horrible images of Ian Snell in my head) who just needs to learn to consistently throw strikes and let his 95 MPH fast ball do the work for him.  No matter who wins the job, I see a lot of ups and downs with some very promising performances and others that make you hate being a Pirates fan.  I also foresee the loser starting the year in AAA, since they both have options left, and the winner eventually losing the job to Brad Lincoln when he is deemed ready for the big leagues in June or July.

The 1 bench spot that is available is really anybody’s guess.  Locked in to the bench are Ryan Church (backup corner outfielder, can play 1B or CF in a pinch), Jason Jaramillo (backup Catcher), Ramon Vasquez (utility infielder) and the loser of the Crosby/Cedeno competition (backup SS).  Those four pretty much cover the diamond, especial when you consider versatility of existing starters such as Garrett Jones ability to play first base, so I would expect the last bench spot to be determined primarily on upside and hitting ability rather than positional specialty.  The options for the spot include Brandon Moss, Rule V pick John Raynor, local product Neil Walker, Steve Pearce and Delwyn Young.  Given his status as a Rule V guy, Raynor has to have a bit of a head start on this spot, and if he can show some base-running acumen, and an ability to hit for average, I think he’ll given a shot to stick around as an extra outfielder.  I’m gonna rule Walker out since he still has options left and the other 3 are basically known commodities at this point.  All of them can hit a little bit, but not well enough to really warrant everyday playing time.  Of the 3, I’m giving the nod to Moss, for no particular reason other than instinct.  Either way, this will be an interesting one to watch as spring progresses.

Last but not least is the Bullpen.  New acquisitions Octavio Dotel and Brendan Donnelly are locks to make it as are Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek.  After those 4, I think its pretty likely that D.J. Carrasco gets one of the 3 remaining spots as well, and Javier Lopez should be given every opportunity to be the LOOGY.  For the last spot, the competion is wide open.  Naming only the people you may have heard of before, there’s Chris Jakabauskus, Wil Ledezma, Jeff Karstens and Steven Jackson.  But beyond that, there are a whole bunch of Non-roster invitees who will be given a chance to prove they are worthy of this spot.  This is another one that will be interesting to watch as the Spring progresses, but if I had to guess, my hunch tells me the spot either goes to Karstens or Jakubauskas.

Tags: ,

Drug Enhanced Pitching Performances

Feb 10

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

Brian over at RTJR posted yesterday about former Pirates Pitcher Doc Ellis’ 1970 LSD no hitter, which got me to thinking about another drug induced pitching achievement.

On May 17, 1998 Yankee’s pitcher (big fat) David Wells threw a perfect game at Yankee Stadium against the Minnesota Twins.  In Well’s book, published in 2004, he claimed he was “half-drunk” on that day.  This leads to an interesting thought experiment: which feat is more impressive, throwing a perfect game while “half-drunk” or tossing a not so rare no-hitter while tripping on LSD?  For the purposes of this post, I’m just going to assume both stories are 100% accurate.  I’m making that assumption for two reasons.  First, becasue I really have no way of knowing if either story is true at all, but since both stories are coming from the players themselves, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are being honest.  Second, because if the stories aren’t true, I don’t have anything to write about.  So lets break it down.

Rarity/Impressiveness of Achievement

Big Fat David Wells (BFDW): In 134 years of recorded baseball history, there have only been 18 official perfect games (As a Pirates fan, I’m obliged to point out Harvey Haddix 12 perfect innings that don’t count as a perfect game).  According to Wikipedia, this means that a perfect game occurs about once every 11,000 contests, in short it’s pretty damn rare.  Then again, one only need look as far as Dewayne Wise’s 9th inning circus catch that saved Mark Buehrle’s perfect game last season to realize there’s a lot of luck involved in a feat this rare.

Trippin Doc Ellis (TDE): There have been almost 15 times as many No-no’s in baseball history as there have been perfect games, with an average of 2 no-hitters being tossed per season.  Still, its not exactly something that happens every day.  And you still need to rely on your defense to make a few plays behind you, even if they can make errors (let’s ignore the imperfect nature of the way errors are counted for now), in order for it to happen.  One could easily conclude that a perfect game involves the same amount of luck, it just requires better command of the strike-zone, and perhaps some free swinging hitters.

Advantage: BFDW.  Both feats are impressive, but if you do anything that happens only once every 7 years, that is hard to top in my book.

Performance Enhancement

TDE: Full disclosure, I’ve never done LSD, nor do I ever intend to do so, certainly not just so I can give this blog post more authenticity.  The key to pitching, or any athletic feat really, is coordination and muscle memory.  So the question that needs to be answered here is how does LSD affect your ability to successfully repeat a pitching motion.  Our answer is found here:

LSD…cause their effects by initially disrupting the interaction of nerve cells and the neurotransmitter serotonin. Distributed throughout the brain and spinal cord, the serotonin system is involved in the control of behavioral, perceptual, and regulatory systems, including mood, hunger, body temperature, sexual behavior, muscle control, and sensory perception.

So basically, it affect every major bodily system, including muscle control.  I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say this would make it pretty damn hard to pitch.

Ellis does note (he’s the one narrating the video embedded in the earlier linked RTJR post) that he also took “greenies”, a stimulant, which could have, in theory, helped to negate some of these affects.  Then again, he also says that the ball seemed small at some times and larger at others, so clearly he was pretty f’ed up.

BFDW: I may have never taken LSD, but I have been half-drunk.  Thanks to a few years at this fine institution of higher learning, I’ve also been full-drunk, kinda drunk, buzzed, blackout, sober, and of course, hung-over (don’t judge, you were in college once too).  I can personally vouch for the fact that athletics are very doable when you’ve had a few beers.  I’ve played softball, basketball, probably even a  few other sports I’m not thinking of right now after a few cold ones, and it is very much within the realm of possibilities.  Alcohol probably, OK certainly, wouldn’t make pitching any easier, but I don’t think it would make it appreciably harder either.

Advantage: TDE.  From the description above, trying to anything that doesn’t involve Cheeto’s and video games sounds downright impossible on LSD.  I can’t imagine trying to throw a baseball accurately (Ellis did walk 8), let alone toss a no-hitter.

Comedic Factor

There really isn’t anything to break down here.  BFDW isn’t really funny.  Ellis on the other hand, well did you watch the video.  Ellis’ voice, his way of speaking, his mannerisms, its all funny.  TDE takes this one hands down.

Verdict

By a score of 2-1, Doc Ellis is our winner.

Tags: , , , ,