So the other day I talked about the pitching & defense, and now it’s time to talk about the other side of the ball. I’ve seen the claim in more than one place that your 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates could have the worst offense seen in Pittsburgh since the 50’s. While I haven’t looked into it extensively, I seriously doubt that claim would hold up from a statistical basis. No matter, there’s lost of people who think this team won’t be good, and they have very good reason to believe so. That said, I think the offense could be pleasantly surprising if just a few things fall the right way.
For opening day, and probably until Pedro Alvarez is called up or someone gets traded, the lineup is going to look something like this:
1. A. Iwamura, 2B
2. A. McCutchen, CF
3. G. Jones, RF
4. R. Doumit, C
5. L. Milledge, LF
6. J. Clement, 1B
7. A. LaRoche, 3B
8. Pitcher
9. R. Cedeno, SS
Starting at the top, Iwamura is a solid on base guy who should set the table nicely. Everyone, myself included expect ‘Cutch will only continue to get better and while there’s certainly room to question Jones (I don’t think anyone expects him to keep up his 21 HR, .938 OPS in 82 games pace he set last year), it’s very reasonable to expect he can hit 30 or so dingers and drive in a bunch of runs hitting in the 3 hole.
The next 4 are the real question marks and will make or break this team from a run scoring point of view. Doumit has proven over the career he can hit the ball well, especially for a catcher, when he is healthy. The big question is, can he stay healthy for the full 162 game season, or will he see time on the DL once again in 2010. Lastings Milledge is probably getting his last shot to prove himself as an every day big leaguer. He’s been saying all the right things this spring, and one of those things he’s been saying is that he’ll be able to hit for more power now that the wrist injury he had last year is fully healed. Only time will tell of course, but I believe this is the year Milledge finally breaks out. Clement is probably the biggest question mark of all, having only played 75 career games in the bigs, none of them at 1B. Based on his minor league numbers, he’s proven all that he can at AAA, and between his power and the Clemente wall in right field, one can at least hope he can be a productive number 6 hitter. Finally, we come to Andy LaRoche. Everyone knows what he did last year, and while that was a massive improvement over what he did in ‘08 after coming over in the Jason Bay trade, he still has a ways to go to be where you want your everyday third baseman to be offensively. Based on his minor league numbers though, there’s reason to believe he could get there, and what he does will go along way to dictating what the pirates do when Pedro Alvarez is ready. Even if he doesn’t improve over his ‘09 season, he’s a very solid on base guy, and you could do a lot worse for your number 7 hitter. It’s probably unreasonable to expect all four of these guys to break out to their potential at one time, but if 2 or three of them can, and Jones can maintain 80% of what he put up in the second half last year, the team should be in good shape offensively.
Finally, the Pirates are all set to bat the pitcher 8th and Ronny Cedeno in the 9 spot to turn the order over. While I like the idea in theory (see here), I don’t like having a career .280 OBP guy playing that role, and would much rather see Andy LaRoche or Lastings Milledge batting ninth.
Moving to the bench, Delwyn Young has been a solid hitter his whole career except when he is expending all his energy pre-game trying to learn to play second base. John Raynor is speedy and could be a nice pinch runner and defensive replacement. Ryan Church is a very solid fourth outfielder and Bobby Crosby was the AL rookie of the year in a former life.
With all that said, I’m probably in the minority here when I say this team could be solid offensively. They aren’t going to be great by any stretch of the imagination, but I really do believe that offense isn’t what will kill this team, but rather the pitching and defense. And once Pedro shows up, likely in early June, well let’s just say the offense can only get better when that happens, and this team is going to begin to come together for the future at that point.
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