This is part 2 of my look back at the 2009 Pirates first half.  You can find part one from Monday here.

Ultimately, I believe that baseball is a simple game.  We tend to over analyze, looking at lots of complicated numbers like UZR, FIP, VORP, etc.  While those numbers re great for deeper analysis, wins and losses depend on two numbers, runs scored and runs allowed.  Lets take a look at the Pirates run scoring and prevention so far in 2009 as compared to the National League Average.  In 2009, the Pirates have scored 374 runs and allowed 385.  Their Pythagorean expected record(WP^2=R^2/(R+RA)^2) is 43-45, 5 games better than their actual record of 38-50.  Going a bit further, lets compare these numbers to the National League averages.  The NL average for run scoring is 391 runs, or 4.443 runs per game (rpg).  The Pirates total of 374 runs yields a 4.261 rpg  average making them just slightly below the NL average for run scoring.  Moving on to run prevention, the NL average is 400 Runs allowed, or 4.545 runs allowed per game (rapg).  The Pirates here are just above average at 4.375 rapg.  Using all of these numbers, we can say that the Pirates run scoring and prevention is approximately the same as the NL average (I posted these same numbers on July 4th, they looked a lot better then).  The number here that has improved over last year is the run prevention.  Our run production last year was just about NL average but our pitching and defense was atrocious, allowing a full 135 runs more than the NL average.  The question, then, is why?

In order to answer that, lets start with the defense.  Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is considered to be the most advanced defensive metric, at least of those that are publicly available.  Ill let fangraphs.com, which is where I get most of my stats from, explain.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

So what does UZR say about the 2009 Pirates defense?  In short, that it has been very good.  There are 5 positions (of 7 possible, catcher and pitcher are excluded) where the Pirates regular at that position is in the top 4 in the NL.  Jack Wilson is first in UZR among NL shortstops.  The now departed Nyjer Morgan is first among left fielders.  Freddy Sanchez is 3rd among second baseman.  Finally Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche are 4th at their positions, right field and third base respectively.  Of those five, only Wilson and Sanchez spent the majority of last season in Pittsburgh, but those two have both improved over last year.  Wilson’s UZR in 2008 was 9.7, it’s 10.6 this year.  Sanchez is even more impressive going from a  -1.6 last year to a 3.5 so far in 2009.  That leaves only Adam LaRoche at first and the McLouth/McCutchen collective in center as below average defensively for their position.  With that type of defense behind our throw to contact pitching staff, its quite easy to see why the run prevention has been so much better in ‘09 than it was in ‘08.

Looking at those numbers, one might even conclude that he only difference this eyar is the defense, but the Pitching staff has been better too.  Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is used to measure a pitchers approximate ERA, based only on what he can control, essentially strikeouts, walks, and home runs.  In 2009, the Pirates FIP as a staff is 4.47, in 2008 it was 4.84.  Looking at specific players, Zach Duke went from a 4.40 in ‘08 to a 4.11 in ‘09.  Paul Maholm went from a 4.15 in ‘08 to a 3.55 in ‘09.  All of this leads one to the inevitable conclusion that despite the lack of evidence in pure wins and losses, the Pirates pitching and defense is vastly improved this year compared to last.  While one might expect the defense to regress some in the second half due to the trade of Tony Plush and possible future trades of Jack and Freddy, the pitching is likely to still be there, and it might even get better if Chaz Morton can be consistent.

So then, that just leaves the run production.  As I said earlier, both last year and so far this year, our run production has been right around league average.  Offensively, despite many of the actual players being different, its the same team with a more doubles and fewer home runs.  In 2008, The Buccos slash stats read 258./320/.403.  In 2009, its a very similar .261/.326/.396.  I’m honestly not quite sure what to expect here in the second half.  One could reasonably expect the power numbers to get a bit better.  With the return of Doumit, Moss finding the power stroke he showed in the minors, and the acquisition of Lastings Milledge, that’s certainly possible.  The counter to that is that Doumit’s injury is likely to sap power for the rest of the year, it’s hardly a guarantee Moss will find his power stroke, and that Adam LaRoche is likely to be traded at some point.  I guess what I’m saying is look for this to stay relatively constant, with some small regression possible depending on what trades are made.

The short version of all that.  Defense and Pitching good.  Offense OK.  All could get worse due to trades.  So lets take a look ahead, see if we can’t make some prediction about who is likely to go and not go.  Here is the basic list of possibilities, in no particular order, as I see it today.

• Jack Wilson has a huge option for next year which will not be picked up.  He is, for all intents and purposes a free agent.
• Freddy Sanchez also has a huge option, but his is vesting if he makes the all-star team (he did) and makes 600 Plate Appearances (he will).  Freddy then is not a free agent, but he is also going to make more next year than the Pirates would want to pay a 32 year old second baseman.
• Adam LaRoche, a notorious second half hitter, is a free agent.
• Left handed set up man John Grabow is a free agent, but likely a type A, which means is we don’t trade him,a nd then he signs with another team this off season, we get a first round pick.
• Zach Duke is a good candidate for sell high.
• There have been some rumors flying around of Matt Capps, but that would not really be a sell high as his ERA is 6.21 right now

So who among that group goes, and who stays (Warning: wild rampant, unfounded speculation ahead).  For starters, I don’t expect Capps to go unless we are overwhelmed with an offer.  The same more or less goes for Duke, with the difference being that Duke is more likely to go because he has more value right now and thus offers are more likely to come in for him.  Moving to guys a little more likely to go, Grabow is an interesting case.  On the one hand, type A free agent status is far from guaranteed.  But on the other, with Sean Burnett in Washington he is our only remaining left handed reliever who isn’t a rule 5 rookie named Donnie Veal.  With a gun to my head, I guess I’d predict he stays, but I’m confident in that one.

Now we get to the interesting ones, Freddy, Jack, and Adam.  Lets get Adam out of the way first because he is the most likely to go.  If we can find someone to give us something of value, Adam LaRoche is as good as gone.  I’ve heard teams don’t want to take on his taking on his 7 million dollar salary, and coming into the break he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn, but there’s enough teams with holes at playoff chances and holes at first base, and he has enough of a second half track record, that I’d be shocked if he is in Pittsburgh at season’s end.

That leaves just the two middle infielders.  If you listened to the Neal Huntington show this Sunday, he talked about these two and the trade possibilities at length.  What he essentially said is that rather than pay almost 15 Million for an aging middle infield, it would make more fiscal sense to try to reduce that number and spend the differential elsewhere, say on a corner outfielder with some pop.  While its possible to envision a scenario where the Pirates keep Freddy and sign Jack as a free agent for something along the lines of 2 years, 3 million a year, I think if you take Huntington’s words at face value, at least one, if not both, are gone.  We don’t have any internal options at short who are even close to major league ready.  It is entirely plausible to think we could decline his option and then resign him for something along the lines of a 2 year deal at about 3 million a year.  I’m gonna predict both.  The Pirates seem desperate to get Delwyn Young’s bat in the lineup.  Making room for him at second by trading Sanchez makes sense I guess, but he is a nightmare defensively, and I’m not convinced that can be fixed, but at this point it seems pretty likely to happen.  My guess for short is that a shortstop prospect who is near major league ready is acquired in a trade, thus allowing us to part ties with Jack Wilson.  If this hypothetical prospect never comes, expect Jack to be kept til years end.

Tags: Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Neal Huntington