With the big league debuts of Tabata and Lincoln (see the post below this one) plus Neil Walker, who made his debut a few weeks ago, the Cavalry (to use Rocco DeMaro’s term) is on its way. Pedro Alvarez, the last major piece expected to arrive this season, is turning it on at AAA and can’t be far behind. These players will undoubtedly help the team, but how much? The team was 23-35 going into last night, but with a pythag record of 14-44. In the 104 remaining games, how much will the cavalry help? Vote in the right sidebar.
Posts Tagged Brad Lincoln
New Poll: Cavalry
Jun 10
On Major League Debuts
Jun 10
In the Pirates last 2 games, we have seen 3 top flight prospects make their big league debut. First, on Monday, Nationals much hyped starter Steven Strasburg made hid debut against the Pirates. He mowed through the lineup, striking out 14 on just 94 pitches. This isn’t a post about Strasburg, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t say how impressive it was. I didn’t get to catch much of the game live, but recorded it on DVR and watched Strasburg’s innings last night. If you want to know how good is stuff is, just consider that there were more than a few occasions where hitters were bailing out against physics defying curve balls for called strikes. When you can throw triple digits with command and also spin it like that, it becomes very, very hard to get good wood on the ball consistently.
After that game was completed, the Pirates announced 1B Jeff Clement would be optioned to AAA and Jack Taschner had been DFA’d. Those 2 moves made room for SP Brad Lincoln and OF Jose Tabata to make their big league debut’s last night. Given how dominant Strasburg was in his debut, part of me considers last night a huge disappointment. Tabata would bat lead-off and went 2-4 with a SB and a BB. Quite honestly, if he can continue to do that and sprinkle in an occasional extra base hit, I’ll be happy. But, there was nothing about his performance that was overwhelmingly excellent, and trying to judge a hitter on one game is just dumb anyway. A one game assessment of a pitcher makes slightly more sense, just because you can judge how their stuff looks, but its still an awful small sample size, which brings me to Brad Lincoln.
Lincolns final line was rather ugly 6.0 7 5 5 2 3 1. But he was very much let down by his defense, and he showed me some things I liked. His plus curve ball that everyone has talked about when he was drafted and making his way through the minor leagues is very much that. It’s a true out pitch when he locates it. It may have just been adrenaline, but he had more velocity on his fastball than I expected, hitting 93-94 in the early innings. At least 2 of the runs he allowed probably should have been unearned, but the no decision he came out of the game with seems fitting given how well he pitched. I’m gonna give Lincoln a pass for now, given that his first start this year at AAA was a rough one and how thoroughly he dominated the level after that. I’ve gone over this before, but Lincoln is never going to be a true ace like Strasburg, so comparing the two is just plain unfair. But he seems to have the makings to become a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, one that should be in a Pirates uniform for at least the next 6 years.
Opening day is finally here, and by the time this posts I will probably be on my way to the North Shore. I’m gonna have a bit of fun with this one, making a few predictions, roughly in chronological order for the 2010 MLB season.
Before I get into it, I thought it was appropriate to throw out links to all the previous 2010 season preview posts.
Written back in Janury: Prospects part 1 & part 2
Its probably useless at this point, but for the sake of completeness, here is my “very brief” spring training preview
Probably my favorite of the series, Expectations
And finally, the Pitching & Defense and Offense previews
OK, let’s get to the predictions
April 5th, Today: The Pirates will start the year off 1-0, getting to Vicente Padilla early and often and the bullpen holds on for a 7-5 victory.
April 28th: The Pirates lose the last of a 3 game sweep in Milwaukee, falling to 10-11 and below .500 for good.
June 3rd: An off day. Aki Iwamura is traded for a mid-level pitching prospect, clearing the way for Andy LaRoche, off to a hot start, to move to second base and Pedro Alvarez to make his big league debut at home the next day against San Francisco. Alvarez finishes the season with 22 homers.
June 7th: The Pirates select phenom Bryce Harper second overall in Major League Baseball’s first year player draft.
July 13th: Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates lone All-Star, as the team crawls into the break 10 games under .500.
July 20th: Brad Lincoln makes his Pirates debut by giving the team their first victory of the season against Milwaukee.
July 31st: For the first time in god knows how long, the Pirates do not make a major deadline deal.
October 3rd: The Pirates beat the Florida Marline to end the season with 70 wins, good for last in the NL Central, 4 games behind 5th place Houston. Jose Tabata spends the entire year at AAA, and is not called up as many expected when the season began.
October 4th: In a one game playoff, Aroldis Chapman beats Adam Wainright giving the Reds the NL Central crown.
November 4th: AL wildcard Tampa Bay beats NL West champion Colorado to win the world series in 7 games.
Pirates MVP: Andrew McCutchen
Pirates ROY: Pedro Alvarez
Pirates “Cy Young”: Charlie Morton
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Aroldis Chapman
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL ROY: Austin Jackson
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
When I started this blog back in May of the past year, I really had no idea what it would become. All I knew was that I was a Pirates fan with something to say, and I wanted an outlet for that. As the season went on I wrote mostly about trades, transactions and big moments. As we head into 2010, I have 2 major things goals, resolutions if you will, for this blog. The first is that I want to post more often. This one should be easy. I have a 20 game ticket plan for 2010 which should very naturally lead to me writing more often and about more varied subjects. The second resolution is that I want to focus more on the minor league system. I’ve thought a lot about how I want to do this. There are several Pirates blogs that do daily prospect updates during the season. Frankly they do a great job and I don’t want to just duplicate that effort. What I think I’m going to do is weekly prospect round ups, providing numbers and a bit of analysis. Doing this on a weekly basis, rather than daily, will allow me to keep things a bit more big picture and keep small blips in perspective. So with that in mind, I’m going to make my first (long) post of 2010 a prospect roundup. The idea here is that I’d like to establish a baseline for all the major prospects whom I intend to follow as 2010 progresses. My goal is not to hit on every major prospect as that would take entirely too long. But I do want to hit all of the high notes, say the top 10, plus a few others who I find interesting. You can consider this post (and part 2 to come along in a few days) the first in a series of 2010 season preview posts. The others though, I will write much later, once the roster and lineup for 2010 are more solidified. With that in mind, lets talk prospects.
Note: I’m using Baseball America’s top 10 prospects for ordering, and have placed my “honorable mentions” at the end of part 2. As a point of clarification, those honorable mentions are not (necessarily) numbers 11,12,13,etc, just a number of other prospects not in the BA top 10 who I wanted to write a few words about.
1. Pedro Alvarez
When you look at the Pirates system, there is Pedro Alvarez, then everyone else. Not that there aren’t other promising prospects, its just that Pedro’s potential is so great, it outshines everything else in the system. Alvarez is a slugging third baseman who was drafted in the 1st round by the Pirates in June of 2008. He would miss the remainder of that season in a contract dispute and made his professional debut in 2009. Prior to Spring training last year, it was reported he was out of shape, and after a slow start at High A Lynchburg, there were some concerns that he may be slower to develop than everyone was expecting. Pedro would eventually turn it on and be promoted AA, finishing with a total line for the season of .288/.378/.535. He would also slug 27 home runs and add 32 doubles over 542 PA in 2009.
As we began this off season, there were concerns his body would prevent him from staying at third and instead force him to move across the diamond to first base in order to get to Pittsburgh. He has spent the offseason training at the Atheletes’ Performance Institute which should lead to him reporting for spring training in much better shape than last year, and hopefully, a very productive 2010 from the young slugger. I expect his 2010 to look much like last years Pirates rookie sensation, Andrew McCutchen. He will wow people in the spring, start the year at AAA Indianapolis, get called up in June or July, and compete for the rookie of the year.
If this comes to fruition, the only question left to be answered will be if he can stay at the hot corner for years to come. Having seen him play in person once last season in Altoona (granted, very small sample size), he looked sluggish at third and didn’t seem to have the kind of range you’d like to see in your everyday third basemen. So I’m skeptical of his ability to stay there long term, and doubt he’ll ever win a gold glove or post impressive UZR/150 numbers. But I’m not an expert, and all the prospect gurus seem to think he’ll have enough leather to stay at third for at least a few years before moving across the diamond to first base, which is good enough for me.
2. Jose Tabata
Jose Tabata is a very interesting case. If it weren’t for Andrew McCutchen’s ominous presence in center field at PNC Park for the foreseeable future, I’d be a lot higher on him than I am. But we can’t just ignore McCutchen’s existence, which means that in order for Tabata to come to Pittsburgh, he has to play a corner outfield position. The problem here is that the ideal corner outfielder has considerably more power than Tabata has ever shown in the minor leagues. Case in point; In 2009 split between AA and AAA, Tabata managed a grand total of 5 home runs. On the other hand, Tabata has been playing at levels above his age for his entire minor league career (Tabata will start 2010, his age 21 season, at AAA). In addition, power is often one of the last things to develop for a prospect, so there is at least some hope that Tabata’s power numbers will come along as he ages. One last thing to keep in mind with Tabata before we move on. Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington has publicly stated that he prefers to have a center field type defender manning the gigantic patch of grass that is left field at PNC Park. Think Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen for some context of what this kind of defensive alignment looks like. If Tabata’s power never develops, but his defense in left is far, far above average, his overall value in terms of runs and wins against replacement could wind up being in the positives which could justify an outfield with Tabata in left, McCutchen in center, and someone who can mash in right.
3. Tony Sanchez
Tony Sanchez was drafted by the Pirates #4 overall out of Boston College this past June and the pick was widely criticized as being a reach. Sanchez was quick to sign and went on to make a rather impressive professional debut in 2009. Spending most of his time at low A West Virginia, Sanchez posted a .409 OBP and a .949 OPS. While only time will tell if his numbers at the plate will translate as he moves to higher levels of the minor leagues and eventually to the bigs, the pro debut certainly gives me reason to believe in Sanchez. In addition to the bat, Sanchez is considered to be very advanced defensively as a catcher. With such a small professional sample size, there is only so much analysis we can do on Sanchez at this point, but as the 2010 season moves along, Sanchez may very well be one of the most interesting names to watch. He will likely start the year at high A. If he hits well there, moves up to AA and does the same, we could easily see Sanchez as the starting catcher sometime in 2011. On the other hand, if at some point this year the bat starts to flounder, we might be waiting a bit longer to see Sanchez behind the plate for the Pirates.
4. Brad Lincoln
At number 4 we find the first pitcher among the Pirates top prospects, Brad Lincoln. Lincoln was the Bucs #1 pick in 2006 but missed all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He came back in 2008, but really seemed to breakout this past summer, regaining his pre-surgery form. He excelled in Altoona for most of the summer before a late season call-up to AAA Indy. After the call-up to Indy he did struggle a bit, but not so much to make me overly concerned. Lincoln’s best pitch coming out of college was his curve ball, and while I didn’t see him pitch this year, it’s been said that the life on his curve was back this season, which is good news for his long term outlook. He works his fastball in the 90-95 range, mixing in his plus curve and his change-up as well. The 2 knocks on Lincoln are that he doesn’t get enough ground balls and that he allows too many home runs. Both are, in theory at least, symptoms of him not working down in the zone enough. If he can resolve that issue, its quite possible he’ll be on the hill at PNC this summer as soon as June or July.
5. Chase D’Arnaud
Chase D’Arnaud is the eventual heir to the middle infield throne held for so long by Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. Where he ends up playing when he gets to Pittsburgh probably depends as much on need as it does on D’Arnaud’s ability, as he can play short, second, or even third base if needed. D’Arnaud handles the bat quite well for a middle infielder, posting a .398 OBP and an .852 OPS in 2009 split between West Virginia and Lynchburg, his first full season of pro ball. In addition to the bat, D’Arnaud also showed decent speed in ‘09 by stealing 31 bases on 39 tries. While he may still be 2 or more season away from being in a Pirates uniform, there seems to be plenty of optimism about his ability to be a productive infielder for the Buccos for a long time once he makes it to Pittsburgh.
6. Starling Marte
Marte is, far and away, the least major league ready of the 6 prospects I’ve dug into in part 1. He was a 2007 international free agent signing(relatively cheaply at $85K) out of the Dominican Republic and made his North American debut in 2009. The problem with profiling a guy like Marte is that I have no idea what to make of his 2007 and 2008 numbers in the Dominican Summer League. But taking those away leaves only one season, 54 games, played at low A West Virginia, and frankly that’s not a lot to go on. For what it’s worth, everyone who knows about these things is really high on Marte, and all indications are that he will continue to show more and more power as he continues to develop. He’s a bit of a free swinger, so his walk rate, and in turn his OBP is a bit lower than what you’d like to see. This is a habit, though, that many players from the Dominican exhibit early in their pro careers, so its pretty easy to assume he’ll eventually learn a bit more patience at the plate. Overall, I’d expect to see Marte as a prospect for several years to come, but he may eventually be a shining example of what a small investment in Latin America can yield.
That’s it for today, but I expect to get part 2 finished and published in a couple of days, so look for that coming soon.
Who is Now?
Jun 23
There has been a lot of discussion recently, going back to the fallout from the Nate McLouth trade, over when, if ever, is “now” for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The consensus answer to this question is that the Pirates future, the contender that has been strived for since 1992, will come in 2011 or ‘12. I base this conclusion not on any one discussion, but based on the sum total of everything I’ve seen, read, and heard about the subject over recent weeks. One such example of this, but hardly the only one is this Dejan Kovacevic piece that includes interviews of Neal Huntington, Frank Coonelly, and Bob Nutting. It draws the following answer to my questions, “Some internally speak of such a possible convergence [of talent at the major league level] in 2011, but there are far too many variables for that to be firm.” Additionally, there is a thread of comments on Rocco DeMaro’s facebook page (June 12th, 10:58 PM, must be registered and a friend of Rocco to read) with lots of discussion around the subject and possible 2011/12 lineups. So if the future is only 2 years away, lets take a look at the Pirates current roster and minor league talent, and try to see what we can determine about who the core is when the future comes. I don’t expect everything I’m about to write to hold true in 2011. My goal here is basically just to give a general idea of who from the current club is still going to be around, who in the minor leagues now is likely to be in Pittsburgh then, and to point out positional voids. Here goes nothing.
Starting Rotation
With Brad Lincoln’s utter dominance of AA, and recent promotion to AAA, it seems that he will be the cornerstone in the bucs rotation of the future. Charlie Morton’s performance in Pittsburgh has been impressive so far, but it is a very small sample size. His stuff is good enough to make one think he too is part of the future. While neither of these two seem certain (Lincoln has yet to start in Indy, Morton has pitched 6 total innings in Pittsburgh), if 2011 or ‘12 is to be when the Pirates become competitive, these two almost certainly have to be part of the rotation then. Beyond that though, there are far more questions than answers.
Who is the real Zach Duke? Is it the Duke of 2005 and for stretches so far this year, or is the Zach Duke of ‘06-’08 the real one? The answer to that question will determine if he stays or not. I’m a big Zach Duke supporter and really wan’t to see the ‘05 Duke back. I had him on one of my fantasy teams then, and I really want him to be a fantasy stud, and a stud for the Pirates in the near future. But looking at the statistics, he is not the pitcher this year that he was in 2005, and that half season looks more and more like an anomaly. In 2005, Duke had a FIP of 3.00, this year its 4.21. In ‘05, his K/BB ration was 2.52, this year its 2.04. Finally, in 2005, Duke’s BABIP was .296, very close to the magic number of .300 that most pitchers usually regress to. This year, its .268. While I think its easy to use statistics to lie, and any of these numbers in isolation would not be enough to convince me, all of these numbers together have. In 2005, Zach Duke was an incredibly effective pitcher, and hitters never really adjusted to him that season. He regressed in the following 3 years as batters adjusted. This year he is an improved pitcher over those 3 bad years, but his numbers this year are far better now than they almost certainly will be when the year is over, just based on a natural regression to the mean. Ultimately, I don’t believe Zach Duke is part of the rotation of the future. I hope I’m wrong on this one.
Paul Maholm pitches to contact, but he’s not dominant. I think that’s fine on a winning team if he’s the 4th starter. When his sinker is working, he has the stuff to look very good at times, but in his last few starts his sinker has not been good, and without that hes just not a very effective pitcher. But I do think on the whole, he is a valuable piece on the back end of a winning major league rotation. Given that he is signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012, I think he will still be here, but that’s far from a safe bet.
That leaves 2 spots left to fill. There are certainly pitchers already in the low levels of the system that could ultimately fill those spots, or they could be filled by players not yet in the system. Of guys already in the system, here are 2 possible names to watch.
Jeff Locke – acquired in the McLouth trade and currently at HiA Lynchburg. He could take one of those spots, but from what I’ve read he still has control problems, so hes too far away to project what he looks like 2 or 3 years from now.
Rudy Owens – He is putting up great numbers at LoA West Virginia this year, but its LoA. Basically, its the same as Jeff Locke, he’s entirely too far away to project where he is 2 or 3 years from now.
Bullpen
Predicting Major League bullpen’s is an impossible task. I don’t even want to speculate. Danny Moskos? Michael Dubee? Donnie Veal? Honestly, anything could happen here and I would not be surprised. The one limb I’m willing to go out on here, the closer will not be Matt Capps. He throws entirely too straight to be a dominant closer for a contending team. While he is effective and attacks hitters, which is a nice trait in a reliever, I don’t see him as the closer beyond 2010, unless no better option develops.
Catcher
The two options here appear to be either current starter Ryan Doumit or 2009 no. 1 pick Tony Sanchez. Doumit’s bat is a plus behind the plate. He’s a switch hitter with power, and a career .798 OPS. But he has also been plagued by injuries his entire career, and this season is no exception. With Tony Sanchez considered to be very advanced defensively, and the surprising performances this year of Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he is traded this off-season or at next years trading deadline. Anyway, it seems safe to assume, if he develops as expected, that Tony Sanchez is the catcher of the future. I’d like to raise on more point about Doumit before moving on. It is possible that he is moved out from behind the plate, likely to either RF or 1B. If that happens, its possible that both Sanchez and Doumit are part of the future.
Middle Infield
The two current middle infield starters, Jack Wilson at SS and Freddy Sanchez at 2B are both, to differing degrees, being consider for trades this year. Sanchez is a free agent after this year, with a club option for $8M that would kick in automatically if he reacher 635 PAs this year or if he makes the all-star team and has 600 ABs. Based on his current pace, barring injury, Sanchez should hit that 635 mark and the option will kick in. While Sanchez is a nice player (.319/.358/.493) , he is already 31 and isn’t getting any younger or better. He is basically at his peak value, and $8 Million is a lot to pay to a player who isn’t part of the future, so I expect him to be traded either at the trade deadline or this offseason.
Wilson has seemingly been on the trade block for 3 years now, and this year is no different. But just like years past, he is more valuable to Pittsburgh than he is to other clubs due to the dearth of options at short. Brian Bixler has proved himself to not be an everyday Major League shortstop. The same goes for Ramon Vazquez. Wilson could be a free agent after this year, but the Pirates have an option for next year worth $8.4M. Wilson’s one plus skill is his glove, and at 31, its due to decline soon, don’t expect them to pick that option up and expect him to be traded too.
So then who plays the middle infield spots in 2010, let alone 2011. Brian Friday? eh. Shelby Ford? blah. Jim Negrych? maybe. The point I’m making here is that I don’t have an answer, and there doesn’t seem to be any sort of consensus as to who fills these two spots in 2011. This is obviously the biggest whole in the Pirates system. This will need to be addressed before the Pirates can be a consistent contender.
Corner Infield
Pedro Alvarez is going to fill one of these 2 spots. Some people believe his glove is good enough to stay at third base, and that’s where he will play as a bucco. Others believe he is a suspect defensive third baseman and will have to move across the diamond to play at the big league level. I’ve yet to see him play (I’m hoping too soon now that he’s in Altoona), so I can’t really provide any input on this question, but lets consider both possibilities. If he has to move to first, the most likely option at third is Andy LaRoche. He’s only 25, and after getting off to a horrendous start (.091/.167/.091 through 9 games), hes been knocking the ball all over the yard to the tune of .281/.352/.390 for the season. If LaRoche can sunstain the average and onbase numbers, and improve a bit on the slugging, he becomes a legit bat at third and moving Alvarez to first is an easy call. In the scenario where LaRoche’s bat continues to develop, it even seems possible that Alvarez is moved because LaRoche is blocking him. Ultimately, Alvarez is more valuable as a third baseman than he is as a first baseman, and if he can play that position, look for him to do so. In that scenario, even if LaRoche’s bat develops, it seems likely that he gets traded and a first baseman is found through that very speculative trade, or through some other means. I’m going with the Alvarez/LaRoche scenario, but I’m entirely comfortable with either scenario.
Outfield
This is probably the easiest position to predict. Andrew McCutchen is in center now, and he will be there 2 years from now. Lets move onto the corners. Jose Tabata, despite his crazy wife, is probably in one of the corners. He’s only 20 now, so he isn’t yet showing the power you would like to see from a corner outfielder. But he projects to be a solid to plus defensive outfielder with some power and I would guess he takes Tony Plush’s current spot in left. That leaves just right field, which is a bit of a mystery, but there seem to be plenty of options. As I said earlier, it could be Ryan Doumit. If Brandom Moss can find his bat, it could be him. It could also be the recently acquired Gorkys Hernandez. There’s probably any number of other options internally, or it could be someone not yet in the Pirates system. I’m not gonna pick a name here, its too wide open, but I think given the number of options, in the next 2 years a solid average to above average player can be found for RF.
My prediction
A starting rotation of Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Paul Maholm, and a player not yet under Pirates control (or Ross Ohlendorf, not detailed above because I’m already at 2000 words). A lineup that includes Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Andy Laroche, Jose Tabata, Tony Sanchez, an unnamed power hitting right fielder, and 2 middle infielders. Add all of that up, and I think its the makings of a team that can finish above .500 and begin to contend a for division titles.
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