Lately, basically since the non-waiver trading deadline, there has been a lot of buzz on Pirates’ blogs about the “Bryce Harper sweepstakes.”  Harper, if you aren’t aware, is a 16 year old super prospect who, assuming he’s granted eligibility, is sure to be the number one pick in next years draft.  If you’ve never heard of him, ESPN.com’s Keith Law has a pretty good scouting report here.  But here’s the thing, I don’t care.  It’s not that I don’t believe in the talent, I do.  It’s just that, for the reasons outlined below, I think its a complete waste of time to root for the Pirates to lose so we can draft Harper next June. In no particular order:

1. If we aren’t last in the NL Central, we can’t be last in the league. This one is partially selfish, because I like to be right, but I really do believe we will finish ahead on Cincinnati in the NL Central.  On July 23rd, I predicted on twitter that the Bucs would not finish last in the NL Central.  I didn’t elaborate in the tweet (140 characters pretty much makes that impossible), but that prediction was based more on how bad the Reds are than how good the Bucs are.  Granted, I made that prediction before the Wilson and Sanchez trades (though I think everyone saw it coming at the time).  Nonetheless, I stand by the prediction and I want to be right about it.  The Reds are not a good team and it doesn’t help that they have been ravaged by injuries this year.  Additionally, the Bucs can’t continue to play as bad as they did to during the 1-13 stretch that just ended.  Even if we don’t end up ahead of the Reds, there are currently 4 other teams between us and last place.  That’s a lot of teams to have to leapfrog and I just don’t see it happening.
2. Some of the players on this team should be part of a Pirates contender. The common wisdom based on who is in the farm system and how long it might take them to develop is that the Pirates are likely to contend in 2011 or ‘12.  I know that seems like a long way off, but really its only 2 or 3 years.  If we are going to content then, at least some of the players on this team will have to a part of contending teams down the road.  I bring this up because piling up losses cannot be good for the confidence of our young players.  Additionally, one of the things to watch down the stretch this year is to see who on this team can take advantage of this opportunity to prove themselves to be quality players at a big league level.  I want as many players as possible to do just that, and that in turn will mean fewer losses and more wins which in turn will mean we have no shot at Harper.
3. Is Harper really going to be worth the $20 or so million it’s going to take to sign him? I know he is allegedly the best player to come through the Rule 4 draft ever, but there is definitely cause for concern.  First of all, as of today, he is only 16.  I know he is a “can’t miss prospect”, and that he hit the longest home run in the history of Tropicana Field, but he’s still only 16.  To me that means that there is more risk in drafting him that there is in drafting a typical high schooler.  Additionally, and this is purely baseless speculation, but something scares me about a kid willing to skip his last 2 years of high school and get a GED just so he can enroll in JUCO ball and be eligible for the draft a year earlier than he would be otherwise.  It sounds to me like a kid who may not adjust so well when he is riding on a bus from Altoona to Trenton for a AA game.  And he’s going to have to just that for at least 3 or 4 years as hs players rarely take a fast track to the show.  I could be completely wrong about all of that, he may be very well adjusted, excel in minor league ball, and be a future hall of famer.  I don’t really know, I would just like to be a little more sure of why he was in such a rush to go pro before I invested $20MM in his future.

Tags: Bryce Harper