Before we look forward to today’s draft and who the Pirates might take in the first round, lets start by looking back.  Two years ago, in the Dave Littlefied era, the Pirates held the 4th overall slot, as they do this year.  In that draft there were several can’t miss prospects, one of whom was Matt Wieters, a Scott Boras client expected to command high dollars, but also expected to take the fast track to the show.  When he slipped past the first 3 picks and was available at #4 the Pirates chose…Daniel Moskos.  It was an unpopular pick at the time that looks even worse now (Wieters is in Baltimore, Moskos is in Altoona).  You can make the case that that pick was the dagger that ended the Littlefield era (although not nearly soon enough).  I relay that not just to take some shots at Littlefield, or to point out his ineptitude (but it sure is fun, right?).  Instead I point it out because Neal Huntington said recently that he expects the Pirates pick to be unpopular, or something to that affect (I don’t have the exact quote or I’d use it).

However, there are several key differences between the draft of 2007 and the draft of 2009, which would seem to say that an unpopular pick is not necessarily a bad one.  For starters, our lovable Buccos finally have a management team in place that we can trust.  A management team with a plan to develop a consistent winning and contending organization.  A management team willing to spend money on top-flight prospects when they see fit (Pedro Alvarez, anyone?).  Second, this draft doesn’t go nearly as deep in terms of can’t miss prospects as either the 2007 or 2008 drafts.  It pretty much only goes one deep, if can’t miss prospects is your measuring stick of choice.  But third and perhaps most importantly, Huntington and company showed in last years draft that one pick does not a draft make.  Beyond Alvarez, they were able to draft and sign several impact talent type players who slipped for various reasons.  If the Pirates do go with a less expensive player at four, look for them to follow last years model and make up for that by spending that saved money on other players taken later on in the draft.

So then, who will the Pirates take 4th overall?  There seem to be 4 names to look at (in no particular order):  Aaron Crow, Zack Wheeler, Dustin Ackley, and Tony Sanchez.  I’m not saying that the Pirates pick at #4 will definitely come from this group, as that’s not something I would bet on, especially in a draft considered as wide open as this one.  There have been several other names bandied about, but for the sake of not writing 10,000 words, I chose to focus on the 4 prospects that seem most likely based on everything I’ve read, seen, and heard.  Amongst that group, there are 2 pitchers (Crow, Wheeler) and 2 hitters (Ackley, Sanchez).  There is a Boras client (Ackley), a prep arm (Wheeler), a catcher consider by most a reach at 4 (Sanchez), and an independent league pitcher (Crow).  The point I’m making is its a pretty diverse group.  Lets break it down as best we can.

Aaron Crow

Background: Crow is in this draft because he failed to sign after being selected ninth overall by the Washington Nationals last year.  After coming out of Missouri last year he is currently pitching for the Independent Ft. Worth Cats.  In his junior and final season at Missouri, he posted a 2.35 ERA and 127Ks in 15 starts totaling 107.1 innings.  Statistics are practically irrelevant due to both the small sample size and level of competition, but for the sake of completeness: 1.06 ERA, 17Ks, 17 IP.

Projection: Crow currently shows three pitches.  A low to mid 90’s fastball, a plus slider and a change.  All three pitches are advanced which would likely indicate he can make it to the big leagues quickly.  However, pretty much every scouting report on him makes note of an ugly delivery.  Whether that means future arm trouble or not is impossible to predict, but assuming the delivery is not a problem, he projects to be a good one.  According to Kieth Law’s 2008 draft scouting report, he is “a power pitcher with a chance to be a solid No. 2 starter”

Signability: Last years negotiation with the Nats is said to have been contentious, and allegedly the two sides never got that close.  One could therefore reasonably assume that he will be a tough sign.  However, he has almost no leverage, because he cannot afford to sit out another year.  The competition in the independant league is not that of college baseball, and another year away from elite level competion is likely to punish his draft stock next year.  While he is likely to try to push the number above slot, its not going to take an Alvarez type number, and expect whoever ends up drafting him to sign him with time to spare.

Zack Wheeler

Background: A high school righty out of Georgia, his stuff is considered to be elite, impact level, but like all prep pitchers, there’s a lot of risk that goes along with the talent.  In most early mock draft he was projected as the pick for the hometown Atlanta Braves, but his stock has risen lately, with most projections having him as the pick of the Orioles at 5.

Projection: He has the kind of arm and frame scouts can dream on.  He is compared to Kyle Drabek, Rick Porcella, and Clayton Kershaw, among others.  But like all High shcool pitchers there are plenty of unknowns.  He only has 2 plus pitches right now, a fastball and a slurve, but he does throw a change, and to be a top fo the rotation starter, he’ll obviously need to develop a third solid pitch.  If he reaches his potential, hes a top of the rotation starter, but the minors are littered with the bodies of high school pitching prodigies who never lived up to their potential.

Signability: He should be a relatively easy sign.  Currently he is committed to Kennesaw State, not exactly the breeding ground of great college baseball players.  While he could go to college and be back int he draft in three years, I think it would be a surprise to almost everyone.  Look for him to sign at slot.

Dustin Ackley

Background: Ackley is the best college bat in this draft and whille there was a grey area early on, he has prtty well cemented himself as the number 2 prospect behind The Anchor Man, Stephen Strasburg.  Make no mistake though, he’s not Pedro Alvarez, as this draft is severly lacking when it comes to college hitters.

Projection: As I said above, he is roundly considered the best hitter in thsi draft and solidly the number 2 prospect.  He should hit for power and has good speed.  The knock on him is whether or not he can play center or if he ends up in a corner or at first base.   Either way, he should ahve the power to be a middle of the lineup hitter.

Signability: Ackley is a Scott Boras client, which likely means he won’t be an easy sign, and the negotiation process will likely drag out all summer long until the August 15 deadline.  In all honesty though, drafting and then not signing Ackley is probably not the end of the world as the number 5 pick next year could easily yield a better player.

Tony Sanchez

Background: He is considered the best college catcher in this draft, but would likely slip into the twenty’s if he isn’t picked by the Pirates at 4.  If he is the pick, it would likely be a very unpopular one among a fanbase already enraged over the Nate McLouth trade.

Projection: In his junior year at Boston College, Sanchez hit for a very solid .346/.443/.614 with 14 home runs in 58 games.  The raw power you want seems to be there.  He has a solid arm behind the plate and projects to be good but not great defensively, with a chance to become an every day catcher.

Signability: Being that he is seen as a huge reach at #4 he should be an easy sign and would likely take considerably below slot.  That money could then be allocated to signing other draftees.

The bottom line: Ackley isn’t gonna slip past both Seattle at 2 and San Diego at 3.  If he does, the Pirates will draft him, but it’s just not a realistic scenario, so forget about it and if it does happen consider it a nice surprise.  Wheeler probably has the most upside, and lord knows our system needs more impact pitchers.  But my gut says that  the risk associated with a high school arm is too much and he’s not the pick.  Sanchez is a reach at 4.  Neal knows it, Frank Coonelly knows it, Greg Smith knows it, Tony Sanchez knows it.  But allegedly Smith and Huntington, flew up to meet with him recently, so it seems were at least interested in him, perhpas as a backup if the guy we really want isn’t there.  Crow though, it seems like the right combo.  He almost has to sign, as the St. Paul Saints aren’t exactly big league competition, and 2 years off would kill his stock next year.  Plus, he projects to have the impact arm the Pirates system is dying to have.  So my prediction, Aaron Crow at #4, Tony Sanchez if Crow is gone.