Bucco Fever

Posts Tagged Jack Wilson

Look Mom, We’re Rebuilding!

Jul 29

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

When you go back to last year when the Pirates traded Xavier Nady, the question has been raised over and over again if the team is in a rebuilding mode.  Neal Huntington and the rest of the Pirates front office has insisted that they aren’t rebuilding, choosing to call it a myriad of words, but never using the word rebuild.  With the two trades made today, dealing Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, its now a rebuilding, whether NH will use the word or not.  They’ve blown it up, acquiring a plethora of young talent along the way, and now they are gonna build it back up from scratch.

Before we get to the specific return from these two trades, I just wanted to point that out, because blowing it all away and building it back up from scratch is what Dave Littlefield would never do.  It always needed to be done, but for some reason he was always half in and half out, never going all the way.  Now that its done, we get to watch a lot of young upside talent play and see who pans out.  Count me in as excited.

Now that that’s out of the way, lets get to the two trades made today.  First, before the 1-0 extra inning loss in San Francisco, the Pirates sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell and over $3 Million in cash to the Seattle Mariners for 5 players.  No that’s not a typo.  The Pirates got 5 players in a exchange for 2 months of a light hitting, great fielding 31 year old SS and a SP who earlier this year requested a demotion to AAA.  If your anything like me, your reaction to this is something along the lines of “Really? They probably aren’t any good then.”   Well, it turns out some of them are pretty good.  There isn’t really an elite level prospect here, but they are solid.

The headliner here is Jeff Clement.  He’s a C/1B who was the Mariners number one pick in the 2005 draft.  He was drafted as a catcher, but from what I’ve read he is now seen as mostly a 1B and no longer as a catcher.  He’s a bit enigmatic, in that he was given an audition last year with the Mariners big club and failed, but his numbers at AAA are excellent.  All in all, it seems that he could be an everyday first baseman who will slug 20+ home runs a year.

In addition to Clement, the Mariners sent SS/2B Ronny Cedeno and single A pitchers Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.  Cedeno is going to be the starting shortstop for the rest of this season, but unless he can show some offensive prowess that he hasn’t showed yet (his career average is .238), he is not a long term answer.  Of the pitchers, Lorin and Adcock both project to be back end starters at the major league level and Pribanic is seen as a fringe prospect.  I’m always cautious with any prospect who is below AA, just due to the level and what can happen between then and reaching the show, but adding this type of pitching depth to the low minors is nice.

I’m just gonna say it, this trade is a steal.  An absolute steal.  What the Mariners were thinking in giving up this much for Wilson and Snell is beyond me.  Don’t take my word for it though, there are people who know way more about baseball than I do who like this deal for the Pirates.  Just one example,  Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com says that “Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal.”

After the game, a second deal was made sending all-star 2B Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for AA pitcher Tim Alderson.  Alderson was rated in January by Baseball America as the giants #4 prospect in a loaded system.  Alderson was the giants #1 pick in 2007 and is considered to be an A+ pitching prospect.  While he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys (202 K’s in 249 career minor lague innings) he also doesn’t walk anyone (51 in the same 249 IP).  He’s also only 20 years old.  He may not be a top of the rotation starter, but might immediately be the Pirates best pitching prospect.

While Sanchez and Wilson will surely be missed, when looking at these deals in total, it seems to me the Pirates organization got drastically better today.  At 31, neither Sanchez nor Wilson was going to be around 2 or 3 years from now when the Pirates are a winning team.  On the other hand, they acquired several players today who could very easily be in Pittsburgh as part of a winning team in the near future.

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Monday Morning Rant

Jul 20

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | 1 Comment

So last night I couldn’t sleep and found myself lying in bed watching one of those Sunday night sports panel shows that the local networks have.  I’m purposefully not naming which one, or on what channel, or who the panelists were.  I’m not doing that because there’s a blog stereotype of a guy in his moms basement who uses negativity towards popular media and/or celebrities to get attention.  I’m not writing this to get attention.  I’m writing this because after their first segment, which was dedicated to the Pirates, I was so pissed off I turned off the TV and threw the remote on the floor.  Then I went to play Tiger woods golf ‘10 for Wii (which can cure anything that ails you I’ve decided).

The segment started off innocently enough, with the host stating that the Pirates had offered low ball extensions to Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, and that those extensions were turned down by both players.  From there it was all down hill.  There were almost no facts.  There wasn’t, in my opinion, a single logical argument made for the rest of the segment.  The low point was when one panelist said (I wish I could find a transcript so I could quote it) that the Pirates should trade any player who wants to stay in Pittsburgh and keep any player who doesn’t want to be here.  His rationale (If you can call it that) being that the team is so bad, so hopeless, that any player who wants to stay here is obviously no good.

Now don’t get me wrong, I understand that 16 consecutive losing seasons can drive a fan a crazy.  If I read that on some random Pirates blog, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I would probably stop reading that blog.  If I wrote something like that here, I would be dismissed as a nut job.  If I had any readership (I don’t) I would expect to lose them over a comment like that.  That argument is so illogical, so nonsensical, that it defies any possible explanation.  I understand that being cynical about the Pirates is a popular sentiment these days, but really, I just expect media members to be a little bit above the fray when it comes to things like that.

After that, they went on to discuss the Ian Snell dilemma, and his alleged comments that he wants to stay in Indianapolis.  There has been some dispute over whether he actually said this or not, but lets assume for simplicities sake that he actually did say so.  One member of the panel thinks the Pirates should recall Snell and make him start whether he wants to or not.

It seems to me that there’s a basic premise this particular panelist seems to be missing.  Ian Snell was sent down because he was wildly inconsistent.  He showed flashes of brilliance no doubt, but his 1.18 K/BB ration speaks to how bad his command is.  Using 70 IP as a baseline (Snell has 80.2) that’s the fourth worst in all of major league baseball.   You can’t be a successful major league starter doing that.  There are any number of possible resolutions to the Snell situation.  He could be traded.  He could make the adjustments he needs to make and eventually be recalled.  He could stay in Indy for a while then be released.  But just bringing him up and throwing him out there because he makes a lot of money doesn’t help the Pirates to win more games, and it doesn’t help Snell to be a better pitcher long term.

With that they threw it to commercial and I threw my remote control.  But my larger point here isn’t to prove to my hypothetical readers (again, I don’t have any) that I have a temper.  My point is that there are many members of the Pittsburgh sports media who seem to take an unfair tact towards the local baseball team.  Granted this is a circumstantial analysis, based solely on my own meandering experience.  But I’ve seen enough of it that I’m starting to think I’m not crazy when I see it happening.  The media in Pittsburgh has spent the last 16 years focusing on a winning football team and a winning hockey team.  When the Steelers or Penguins make a move, it is analyzed at a deeper level and either criticized or applauded on its merit.  In that time though, the media has become so used to the Pirates losing ways that every move the team makes is arbitrarily dismissed as a mistake.

I’m not saying The Pirates are above reproach, certainly they have made some mistakes, and they will make mistakes in the future.  The same though is true of the Penguins and Steelers.  The Rooney family, contrary to popular belief, has made a mistake or two along the way (Anybody remember Jamain Stephens?).  All I’m hoping for is for the Pittsburgh sports media to give equal treatment to all three teams.  As of right now, I don’t believe that to be the case.

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Miguel Angel Sano, Future of The Middle Infield, and a quick note on Garrett Freakin’ Jones.

Jul 18

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

There have been developments over the last several days on the future of the middle infield, and the status of Miguel Angel Sano.  There’s still nothing major on either front, but its enough that it’s worth putting my thoughts into words.

The Sano situation is an interesting one, and its not something I’ve wrote much about so far, mostly because I don’t want to get myself too excited about anything until he is officially a Pirate.  Well in recent days that has become much, much more likely.  A few days ago, Jorge Arangure of ESPN tweeted that he thinks “it’s 90 percent” the Pirates sign Sano.  That’s when I started to get rather excited, but all of this still hinged on Major League Baseball completing their age investigation and confirming he is in fact 16.  Given the Bucs had already conducted a bone graft that confirmed he was between 16 and 17, that seemed like a foregone conclusion to me .  Now that stumbling block is out of the way.  Sport Illustrated is reporting that MLB has in fact completed its age investigation, and DK says that it will be announced Tuesday or Wednesday.

So where does that leave us.  In short, let the negotiations begin.  In addition to Pittsburgh, The Twins and Orioles have both been linked to Sano.  And no doubt, now that the age investigation is complete, there will be more teams throwing their hats (and money) in the ring.

Whats nice is that the Pirates have an inside track.   They have a long standing relationship with the player, his family, and perhaps most importantly his agent.  I don’t want to put words into his mouth, but this is probably at least partially why Arangure says the Pirates are 90% to sign him.

This would be huge.  It’s not that I think Sano is a sure thing, at 16 no one is.  There’s a lot that can happen between 16 and The Show.  But what makes this so impactful, and its not a surprise really, is that management is finally spending the big dollars in the international market.  Unlike the major league free agent market, signing international players at a young age is one way that small to mid market teams can gain a competitive advantage over the big boys.  This type of stuff never happened under Dave Littlefield.  I guess what I’m saying is that this is another huge step in the right direction.

The other big development, and I linked to the news of it yesterday, is that the Pirates have extended contract offers to both Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez.  Since that development, its come out that these offers were of the low ball variety.  Quoting DK:

The offer to Wilson, according to two sources, covers two years plus a club option. No money terms were divulged, but it was seen as competitive even though it represented a significant cut from his current $7.4 million salary. Wilson would prefer three guaranteed years.

But the initial offer to Sanchez, also made yesterday, was for two years and a total believed to be in the range of $10 million. That would represent a cut from his current salary of $6.25 million and, more striking, the total is $2 million more than the $8 million Sanchez is set to make in 2010 alone under the vesting option in his current contract, one that would be annulled under the Pirates’ proposal.

Sanchez is on a comfortable pace to achieve the 600 plate appearances necessary to trigger that option.

What this really means is that the Pirates are making a legitimate effort to re-sign Jack, but not quite doing the same with Freddy.  Signed or not, this has to be resolved in the next few days such that trade offers can continue to be fielded.  With all of this being said, I’m going to stick by what I wrote the other day in part 2 of my first half wrap up.  Freddy Sanchez is almost certain to be traded.  If the pirates offer negates that 8 million dollar option, without giving up something in return, Sanchez would be crazy to sign it, thus sealing his fate.  Jack will be kept in a scenario where no major league ready shortstop can be acquired via a trade.  My guess is that Neal Huntington and company do not expect to get a shortstop prospect in a trade, and therefore are making an effort to re-sign Jack.

Last, I’d like to discuss Garrett Jones real fast.  Jones is already 28, and as I said when we traded Nyjer Morgan, guys that old don’t tend to get much better.  I’m leery to get excited here because players who come up at 28, with just a stale cup of coffee at 26, don’t have a track record of being impact talent at the big league level.  But what he’s done so far is beyond impressive.  .313/.365/.833 for an OPS of almost 1.200.  Add to that 7 home runs and 3 stolen bases in just 12 games and its hard to ignore how well he has played since being called up.  Numbers like that are just as useful to the bottom line when they comes from a  28 year old as they are when they come from a 22 year old.  The tear Jones is currently on is unsustainable, so he’s sure to cool off.  But if he can give us solid power production and steal a few bases he could certainly play a corner outfield position or even take first base if and when Adam LaRoche is traded.  Call me cautiously optimistic.

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Links – July 16th

Jul 17

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

As we come out of the break today with an actually Pirates game tonight, lets hit some links.

The PG reports Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez have been offered contract extensions

WHYGAVS has an analysis of Zach Duke’s PitchFX data

Ian Snell pitched another strong minor league game last night, though he did walk 5

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At the Break – Part 2

Jul 16

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

This is part 2 of my look back at the 2009 Pirates first half.  You can find part one from Monday here.

Ultimately, I believe that baseball is a simple game.  We tend to over analyze, looking at lots of complicated numbers like UZR, FIP, VORP, etc.  While those numbers re great for deeper analysis, wins and losses depend on two numbers, runs scored and runs allowed.  Lets take a look at the Pirates run scoring and prevention so far in 2009 as compared to the National League Average.  In 2009, the Pirates have scored 374 runs and allowed 385.  Their Pythagorean expected record(WP^2=R^2/(R+RA)^2) is 43-45, 5 games better than their actual record of 38-50.  Going a bit further, lets compare these numbers to the National League averages.  The NL average for run scoring is 391 runs, or 4.443 runs per game (rpg).  The Pirates total of 374 runs yields a 4.261 rpg  average making them just slightly below the NL average for run scoring.  Moving on to run prevention, the NL average is 400 Runs allowed, or 4.545 runs allowed per game (rapg).  The Pirates here are just above average at 4.375 rapg.  Using all of these numbers, we can say that the Pirates run scoring and prevention is approximately the same as the NL average (I posted these same numbers on July 4th, they looked a lot better then).  The number here that has improved over last year is the run prevention.  Our run production last year was just about NL average but our pitching and defense was atrocious, allowing a full 135 runs more than the NL average.  The question, then, is why?

In order to answer that, lets start with the defense.  Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is considered to be the most advanced defensive metric, at least of those that are publicly available.  Ill let fangraphs.com, which is where I get most of my stats from, explain.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

So what does UZR say about the 2009 Pirates defense?  In short, that it has been very good.  There are 5 positions (of 7 possible, catcher and pitcher are excluded) where the Pirates regular at that position is in the top 4 in the NL.  Jack Wilson is first in UZR among NL shortstops.  The now departed Nyjer Morgan is first among left fielders.  Freddy Sanchez is 3rd among second baseman.  Finally Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche are 4th at their positions, right field and third base respectively.  Of those five, only Wilson and Sanchez spent the majority of last season in Pittsburgh, but those two have both improved over last year.  Wilson’s UZR in 2008 was 9.7, it’s 10.6 this year.  Sanchez is even more impressive going from a  -1.6 last year to a 3.5 so far in 2009.  That leaves only Adam LaRoche at first and the McLouth/McCutchen collective in center as below average defensively for their position.  With that type of defense behind our throw to contact pitching staff, its quite easy to see why the run prevention has been so much better in ‘09 than it was in ‘08.

Looking at those numbers, one might even conclude that he only difference this eyar is the defense, but the Pitching staff has been better too.  Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is used to measure a pitchers approximate ERA, based only on what he can control, essentially strikeouts, walks, and home runs.  In 2009, the Pirates FIP as a staff is 4.47, in 2008 it was 4.84.  Looking at specific players, Zach Duke went from a 4.40 in ‘08 to a 4.11 in ‘09.  Paul Maholm went from a 4.15 in ‘08 to a 3.55 in ‘09.  All of this leads one to the inevitable conclusion that despite the lack of evidence in pure wins and losses, the Pirates pitching and defense is vastly improved this year compared to last.  While one might expect the defense to regress some in the second half due to the trade of Tony Plush and possible future trades of Jack and Freddy, the pitching is likely to still be there, and it might even get better if Chaz Morton can be consistent.

So then, that just leaves the run production.  As I said earlier, both last year and so far this year, our run production has been right around league average.  Offensively, despite many of the actual players being different, its the same team with a more doubles and fewer home runs.  In 2008, The Buccos slash stats read 258./320/.403.  In 2009, its a very similar .261/.326/.396.  I’m honestly not quite sure what to expect here in the second half.  One could reasonably expect the power numbers to get a bit better.  With the return of Doumit, Moss finding the power stroke he showed in the minors, and the acquisition of Lastings Milledge, that’s certainly possible.  The counter to that is that Doumit’s injury is likely to sap power for the rest of the year, it’s hardly a guarantee Moss will find his power stroke, and that Adam LaRoche is likely to be traded at some point.  I guess what I’m saying is look for this to stay relatively constant, with some small regression possible depending on what trades are made.

The short version of all that.  Defense and Pitching good.  Offense OK.  All could get worse due to trades.  So lets take a look ahead, see if we can’t make some prediction about who is likely to go and not go.  Here is the basic list of possibilities, in no particular order, as I see it today.

  • Jack Wilson has a huge option for next year which will not be picked up.  He is, for all intents and purposes a free agent.
  • Freddy Sanchez also has a huge option, but his is vesting if he makes the all-star team (he did) and makes 600 Plate Appearances (he will).  Freddy then is not a free agent, but he is also going to make more next year than the Pirates would want to pay a 32 year old second baseman.
  • Adam LaRoche, a notorious second half hitter, is a free agent.
  • Left handed set up man John Grabow is a free agent, but likely a type A, which means is we don’t trade him,a nd then he signs with another team this off season, we get a first round pick.
  • Zach Duke is a good candidate for sell high.
  • There have been some rumors flying around of Matt Capps, but that would not really be a sell high as his ERA is 6.21 right now

So who among that group goes, and who stays (Warning: wild rampant, unfounded speculation ahead).  For starters, I don’t expect Capps to go unless we are overwhelmed with an offer.  The same more or less goes for Duke, with the difference being that Duke is more likely to go because he has more value right now and thus offers are more likely to come in for him.  Moving to guys a little more likely to go, Grabow is an interesting case.  On the one hand, type A free agent status is far from guaranteed.  But on the other, with Sean Burnett in Washington he is our only remaining left handed reliever who isn’t a rule 5 rookie named Donnie Veal.  With a gun to my head, I guess I’d predict he stays, but I’m confident in that one.

Now we get to the interesting ones, Freddy, Jack, and Adam.  Lets get Adam out of the way first because he is the most likely to go.  If we can find someone to give us something of value, Adam LaRoche is as good as gone.  I’ve heard teams don’t want to take on his taking on his 7 million dollar salary, and coming into the break he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn, but there’s enough teams with holes at playoff chances and holes at first base, and he has enough of a second half track record, that I’d be shocked if he is in Pittsburgh at season’s end.

That leaves just the two middle infielders.  If you listened to the Neal Huntington show this Sunday, he talked about these two and the trade possibilities at length.  What he essentially said is that rather than pay almost 15 Million for an aging middle infield, it would make more fiscal sense to try to reduce that number and spend the differential elsewhere, say on a corner outfielder with some pop.  While its possible to envision a scenario where the Pirates keep Freddy and sign Jack as a free agent for something along the lines of 2 years, 3 million a year, I think if you take Huntington’s words at face value, at least one, if not both, are gone.  We don’t have any internal options at short who are even close to major league ready.  It is entirely plausible to think we could decline his option and then resign him for something along the lines of a 2 year deal at about 3 million a year.  I’m gonna predict both.  The Pirates seem desperate to get Delwyn Young’s bat in the lineup.  Making room for him at second by trading Sanchez makes sense I guess, but he is a nightmare defensively, and I’m not convinced that can be fixed, but at this point it seems pretty likely to happen.  My guess for short is that a shortstop prospect who is near major league ready is acquired in a trade, thus allowing us to part ties with Jack Wilson.  If this hypothetical prospect never comes, expect Jack to be kept til years end.

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