When I started this blog back in May of the past year, I really had no idea what it would become.  All I knew was that I was a Pirates fan with something to say, and I wanted an outlet for that.  As the season went on I wrote mostly about trades, transactions and big moments.  As we head into 2010, I have 2 major things goals, resolutions if you will, for this blog.  The first is that I want to post more often.  This one should be easy.  I have a 20 game ticket plan for 2010 which should very naturally lead to me writing more often and about more varied subjects.  The second resolution is that I want to focus more on the minor league system.  I’ve thought a lot about how I want to do this.  There are several Pirates blogs that do daily prospect updates during the season.  Frankly they do a great job and I don’t want to just duplicate that effort.  What I think I’m going to do is weekly prospect round ups, providing numbers and a bit of analysis.  Doing this on a weekly basis, rather than daily, will allow me to keep things a bit more big picture and keep small blips in perspective.  So with that in mind, I’m going to make my first (long) post of 2010 a prospect roundup.  The idea here is that I’d like to establish a baseline for all the major prospects whom I intend to follow as 2010 progresses. My goal is not to hit on every major prospect as that would take entirely too long.   But I do want to hit all of the high notes, say the top 10, plus a few others who I find interesting.  You can consider this post (and part 2 to come along in a few days) the first in a series of 2010 season preview posts.  The others though, I will write much later, once the roster and lineup for 2010 are more solidified.  With that in mind, lets talk prospects.

Note: I’m using Baseball America’s top 10 prospects for ordering, and have placed my “honorable mentions” at the end of part 2.  As a point of clarification, those honorable mentions are not (necessarily) numbers 11,12,13,etc, just a number of other prospects not in the BA top 10 who I wanted to write a few words about.

1. Pedro Alvarez

When you look at the Pirates system, there is Pedro Alvarez, then everyone else.  Not that there aren’t other promising prospects, its just that Pedro’s potential is so great, it outshines everything else in the system.  Alvarez is a slugging third baseman who was drafted in the 1st round by the Pirates in June of 2008.  He would miss the remainder of that season in a contract dispute and made his professional debut in 2009.  Prior to Spring training last year, it was reported he was out of shape, and after a slow start at High A Lynchburg, there were some concerns that he may be slower to develop than everyone was expecting.  Pedro would eventually turn it on and be promoted AA, finishing with a total line for the season of .288/.378/.535.  He would also slug 27 home runs and add 32 doubles over 542 PA in 2009.

As we began this off season, there were concerns his body would prevent him from staying at third and instead force him to move across the diamond to first base in order to get to Pittsburgh.  He has spent the offseason training at the Atheletes’ Performance Institute which should lead to him reporting for spring training in much better shape than last year, and hopefully, a very productive 2010 from the young slugger.  I expect his 2010 to look much like last years Pirates rookie sensation, Andrew McCutchen.  He will wow people in the spring, start the year at AAA Indianapolis, get called up in June or July, and compete for the rookie of the year.

If this comes to fruition, the only question left to be answered will be if he can stay at the hot corner for years to come.  Having seen him play in person once last season in Altoona (granted, very small sample size), he looked sluggish at third and didn’t seem to have the kind of range you’d like to see in your everyday third basemen.  So I’m skeptical of his ability to stay there long term, and doubt he’ll ever win a gold glove or post impressive UZR/150 numbers.  But I’m not an expert, and all the prospect gurus seem to think he’ll have enough leather to stay at third for at least a few years before moving across the diamond to first base, which is good enough for me.

2. Jose Tabata

Jose Tabata is a very interesting case.  If it weren’t for Andrew McCutchen’s ominous presence in center field at PNC Park for the foreseeable future, I’d be a lot higher on him than I am.  But we can’t just ignore McCutchen’s existence, which means that in order for Tabata to come to Pittsburgh, he has to play a corner outfield position.  The problem here is that the ideal corner outfielder has considerably more power than Tabata has ever shown in the minor leagues.  Case in point; In 2009 split between AA and AAA, Tabata managed a grand total of 5 home runs.  On the other hand, Tabata has been playing at levels above his age for his entire minor league career (Tabata will start 2010, his age 21 season, at AAA).  In addition, power is often one of the last things to develop for a prospect, so there is at least some hope that Tabata’s power numbers will come along as he ages.  One last thing to keep in mind with Tabata before we move on.  Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington has publicly stated that he prefers to have a center field type defender manning the gigantic patch of grass that is left field at PNC Park.  Think Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen for some context of what this kind of defensive alignment looks like.  If Tabata’s power never develops, but his defense in left is far, far above average, his overall value in terms of runs and wins against replacement could wind up being in the positives which could justify an outfield with Tabata in left, McCutchen in center, and someone who can mash in right.

3. Tony Sanchez

Tony Sanchez was drafted by the Pirates #4 overall out of Boston College this past June and the pick was widely criticized as being a reach.  Sanchez was quick to sign and went on to make a rather impressive professional debut in 2009.  Spending most of his time at low A West Virginia, Sanchez posted a .409 OBP and a .949 OPS.  While only time will tell if his numbers at the plate will translate as he moves to higher levels of the minor leagues and eventually to the bigs, the pro debut certainly gives me reason to believe in Sanchez.  In addition to the bat, Sanchez is considered to be very advanced defensively as a catcher.  With such a small professional sample size, there is only so much analysis we can do on Sanchez at this point, but as the 2010 season moves along, Sanchez may very well be one of the most interesting names to watch.  He will likely start the year at high A.  If he hits well there, moves up to AA and does the same, we could easily see Sanchez as the starting catcher sometime in 2011.  On the other hand, if at some point this year the bat starts to flounder, we might be waiting a bit longer to see Sanchez behind the plate for the Pirates.

4. Brad Lincoln

At number 4 we find the first pitcher among the Pirates top prospects, Brad Lincoln.  Lincoln was the Bucs #1 pick in 2006 but missed all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.  He came back in 2008, but really seemed to breakout this past summer, regaining his pre-surgery form.  He excelled in Altoona for most of the summer before a late season call-up to AAA Indy.  After the call-up to Indy he did struggle a bit, but not so much to make me overly concerned.  Lincoln’s best pitch coming out of college was his curve ball, and while I didn’t see him pitch this year, it’s been said that the life on his curve was back this season, which is good news for his long term outlook.  He works his fastball in the 90-95 range, mixing in his plus curve and his change-up as well.  The 2 knocks on Lincoln are that he doesn’t get enough ground balls and that he allows too many home runs.  Both are, in theory at least, symptoms of him not working down in the zone enough.  If he can resolve that issue, its quite possible he’ll be on the hill at PNC this summer as soon as June or July.

5. Chase D’Arnaud

Chase D’Arnaud is the eventual heir to the middle infield throne held for so long by Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson.  Where he ends up playing when he gets to Pittsburgh probably depends as much on need as it does on D’Arnaud’s ability, as he can play short, second, or even third base if needed.  D’Arnaud handles the bat quite well for a middle infielder, posting a .398 OBP and an .852 OPS in 2009 split between West Virginia and Lynchburg, his first full season of pro ball.  In addition to the bat, D’Arnaud also showed decent speed in ‘09 by stealing 31 bases on 39 tries.  While he may still be 2 or more season away from being in a Pirates uniform, there seems to be plenty of optimism about his ability to be a productive infielder for the Buccos for a long time once he makes it to Pittsburgh.

6. Starling Marte

Marte is, far and away, the least major league ready of the 6 prospects I’ve dug into in part 1.  He was a 2007 international free agent signing(relatively cheaply at $85K) out of the Dominican Republic and made his North American debut in 2009.  The problem with profiling a guy like Marte is that I have no idea what to make of his 2007 and 2008 numbers in the Dominican Summer League.  But taking those away leaves only one season, 54 games, played at low A West Virginia, and frankly that’s not a lot to go on.  For what it’s worth, everyone who knows about these things is really high on Marte, and all indications are that he will continue to show more and more power as he continues to develop.  He’s a bit of a free swinger, so his walk rate, and in turn his OBP is a bit lower than what you’d like to see.  This is a habit, though, that many players from the Dominican exhibit early in their pro careers, so its pretty easy to assume he’ll eventually learn a bit more patience at the plate.  Overall, I’d expect to see Marte as a prospect for several years to come, but he may eventually be a shining example of what a small investment in Latin America can yield.

That’s it for today, but I expect to get part 2 finished and published in a couple of days, so look for that coming soon.

Tags: 2010 season preview, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Prospects, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez