There is absolutely no reason that Andy LaRoche, one of the teams best hitters, should be hitting 7th.  There is absolutely no reason that ‘Cutch, a prototypical lead-off hitter, should be coming up with 2 outs and no one on as the 3rd hitter so frequently does.  There is very little reason, beyond “tradition”, that the pitcher should be batting 9th (For reference, here is the Pirates “Ideal” lineup.  I used ZiPS(RoS) numbers from fangraphs, except for Duke, where I used career numbers because ZiPS hitting numbers aren’t provided for pitchers).  The Pirates started the season by doing these things.  They were following the math.  Granted, Cedeno isn’t an idea guy to turn the lineup over, but the Pirates personnel isn’t exactly ideal, so they were working with what they had and optimizing run production.  I was happy.  I’m not sure why the moved away from that, I’m guessing it had something to do with Aki’s awful start to the season and all the blowout losses, but whatever the reasoning is has lead to this monstrosity, and I just don’t get it.

I’m not quite sure how the day-to-day lineup is constructed.  My guess is that the front office, Neal Huntington and his team, are providing JR with their input and discussing the math with him, but that he is given freedom to shift things as he sees fit on a dialy basis.  Whatever the system is that leads to a lineup this bad needs to be changed, thats all I’m saying.

</rant>

I’m not gonna recap what Mike & Mike said, you can listen to the interviews if you like.  But in light of those, I was thinking about the soft cap/revenue system MLB has in place, and the following seems obvious to me.  1) without the revenue sharing system, teams like the Pirates and Brewers would basically have no hope of signing any free agents.  2) Even with revenue sharing, low revenue teams, take a huge risk any time they commit significant ong term dollars to one player.  3)  Just because the low revenue clubs make the playoffs or win the world series occasionally, that doesn’t make the advantage the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. have any less humongous.

You could probably argue any of those above 3 points, but you would be wrong.  Here’s what is debatable though.  Will Major League Baseball ever be able to modify the revenue system to the point where the inherent inequities aren’t there, or at least aren’t as large.  One way to do that would be a hard cap, and that will probably never happen.  But short of that, they would limit guaranteed contracts, increase the percentage of the luxury tax for going over the soft cap, institute a world wide draft.  All of these things would help, and until the owners and players take significant steps to improve the system, there will be stories like the Attanasio/Levine one this week.

As I mentioned a few weeks back, The Pirates have already addressed their most glaring need by trading for 2nd baseman Aki Iwamura.  With that hole filled, their focus has shifted to acquiring arms to improve a bullpen that struggled down the stretch in 2009.  From the names being reported so far (J.J. Putz, Justin Duchscherer, Noah Lowry, etc) Neal Huntington seems to be targeting players who can be had at good short term value.  These types of guys are intriguing because they have all achieved some level of past success, but had down years in 2009 due to injury.  Of this group, I find Duchscherer the most interesting because of the possibility that he could start.  Right now, the Pirates front 4 starters seem all but assured of being Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton with the fifth spot a toss up between Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen.  If the team can sign Duchscherer, he would have the opportunity to compete for the last spot in the rotation and also fall back to be a solid long reliever if he doesn’t win the 5th starters job.

As the off season progresses, it will be fun to watch which of these names become more than just preliminary interest, and to see if Huntington brings in anyone who will make an impact on wins and losses in 2010.

However, it was just recently reported that Dominican super prospect Miguel Angel Sano is going to sign with the Twins for a $3.15 Million bonus.  Sano, you will recall, had been heavily pursued by the Pirates going back to the early summer and it was widely believed among people who know things like this that he would eventually sign with the Bucs.  Allegedly, Sano’s agent Rob Plummer had rejected the Pirates last offer of $2.6 Million but told them they would have a chance to counter another offer and they were not given that chance.  I’m not going to ridicule Plummer. For whatever reason, he feels signing with Minnesota is the best situation for his client, but the whole thing seems a bit shady to me.

As a fan though, it stinks.  The international free agent market is one of the few places where small market teams such as the Pirates can compete on a level playing field.  Say what you will about 16 year old players being very volatile assets, I agree with that whole-heartedly.  But if you aren’t at least a little dissapointed that the Pirates failed to sign Sano, I’m not sure what to say to convince you that you should be.  If this team wants to compete long term, they need to start procuring and developing young, high-end talent.  They have, in the last 2 years, done that in the draft with selections like Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, and Colton Cain.  But they have yet to do so in the Latin American free agent market.  Signing Sano would have been a huge step in the right direction, not to mention a bit of a silver lining to this awful, awful season.  Their ultimate failure to do so, no matter what the reason for it, is disheartening for me to see as a fan of this team who desperately wants to see them win again.

There seem to be 2 prevailing arguments against what Neal Huntington has done since taking the reins as the Pirates GM.  First, people try to make the argument that the players traded were talented enough to be the core of a winning team.  Jay Mariotti writes on fanhouse:

[Neal Huntington's] plan is to rebuild a bad farm system, but in the process, he has traded off a group of respectable, and, in some cases, quality major-leaguers. Bay, McLouth and Morgan would comprise one of the best outfields in the game if still together. Wilson and Sanchez were huge fan favorites and best friends who worked well as a double-play combination. Snell was a 14-game winner at one point.

The problem with this argument is that it is obviously false.  Almost every single players traded was on the Pirates roster in 2007.  That team finished with a record of 68-94.  Same story in 2008, a team that had a record of 48-56 prior to the first major trade, the Xavier Nady trade.  Quite obviosly, using nothing but the team record, the players the Pirates had weren’t enough to win in ‘07 and ‘08, and there was little reason to believe they would be enough to win in’09 or beyond.

While a few of the players traded away were above average major league players, most notably Bay and Sanchez, there wasn’t enough around them to be a winning team.  Furthermore, the minor league system was left so barren by previous administrations, that there was nothing coming up behind them to augment the talent at the major league level.

While were on the subject of the minor league system, lets get to the second argument commonly made against these trades, that the Pirates aren’t getting high end prospects back in these trades.  The problem with this line of reasoning, is that it assumes major league general managers are willing to part with their high end prospects easily.  In this day and age of the over valued prospect, you can only acquire high end prospects by giving up high end players.  As I mentioned before, the only high end players traded away were Sanchez and Bay (some would argue this McLouth here, but that’s a discussion for another day).  In the Sanchez deal, a high end prospect was returned in the form of pitcher Tim Alderson.  Likewise, the Bay deal, while more of a depth move, returned Bryan Morris.  While Morris has struggled with injuries since coming to the Pirates, he was once considered to be a high upside pitching prospect.  When you consider what was given up, I think the prospect return the Bucs received was more than fair.  In addition, it addressed the immediate problem at hand, which was filling the void left in the system by Dave Littlefield and Kevin McClatchy.

The final argument I hear is that until the Pirates can produce their own players, they will never be able to win.  Peter Pascarelli sums this one up well on ESPN’s baseball today podcast on July 31st.

They’ve got to get some stability somewhere.  But they still have to start producing their own players.  To me, that’s the bottom line.   They can’t keep trading for prospects, and hope that a few of them pan out….It’s a vicious cycle.  An unsuccessful small market team continues recycling players.  Until you have some success and until your own system produces it’s own players, your going to see them trade away guys every other year.

I actually agree with this wholeheartedly.  If the Pirates are ever going to win consistently in the long term, they have to be able to draft well, sign players in the international market, and generally do a good job of developing young talent.  The problem here, is that it’s not really a valid argument against making these trades.  To illustrate this, I’m going to come up with a ludicrous example.

Lets say you were a corn farmer who survives by trading your corn for sugar, meat, whatever it is you need to survive, and then selling the excess for money.  Then lets imagine you had a bad crop one year.  It seems quite obvious to me that you would use the money left over from selling last years crop in order to buy the sugar and meat you need.  But it also seems quite obvious to me that if you continue to have bad crops year in and out for a sustained period of time, you won’t ever get rich.

Its a bit of a flawed analogy obviously, but I think its effective despite those flaws.  For the past 16 years, the Pirates have had a lot of bad crops.  If they want to win long term, they need to start having good crops.  But that alone doesn’t mean they should starve this year.

The bottom line is that until some of these prospects pan out (or conversely, don’t pan out), it will be hard to say definitively which of these trades are wins for the bucs and which ones aren’t.  That isn’t going to happen until at least the middle of next year or beyond.  But you really can’t make a logical argument against the strategy that Neal Huntington has taken in trying to rebuild the organization and the arguments that are being made are very easily refuted.

Before we get to the specific return from these two trades, I just wanted to point that out, because blowing it all away and building it back up from scratch is what Dave Littlefield would never do.  It always needed to be done, but for some reason he was always half in and half out, never going all the way.  Now that its done, we get to watch a lot of young upside talent play and see who pans out.  Count me in as excited.

Now that that’s out of the way, lets get to the two trades made today.  First, before the 1-0 extra inning loss in San Francisco, the Pirates sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell and over $3 Million in cash to the Seattle Mariners for 5 players.  No that’s not a typo.  The Pirates got 5 players in a exchange for 2 months of a light hitting, great fielding 31 year old SS and a SP who earlier this year requested a demotion to AAA.  If your anything like me, your reaction to this is something along the lines of “Really? They probably aren’t any good then.”   Well, it turns out some of them are pretty good.  There isn’t really an elite level prospect here, but they are solid.

The headliner here is Jeff Clement.  He’s a C/1B who was the Mariners number one pick in the 2005 draft.  He was drafted as a catcher, but from what I’ve read he is now seen as mostly a 1B and no longer as a catcher.  He’s a bit enigmatic, in that he was given an audition last year with the Mariners big club and failed, but his numbers at AAA are excellent.  All in all, it seems that he could be an everyday first baseman who will slug 20+ home runs a year.

In addition to Clement, the Mariners sent SS/2B Ronny Cedeno and single A pitchers Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.  Cedeno is going to be the starting shortstop for the rest of this season, but unless he can show some offensive prowess that he hasn’t showed yet (his career average is .238), he is not a long term answer.  Of the pitchers, Lorin and Adcock both project to be back end starters at the major league level and Pribanic is seen as a fringe prospect.  I’m always cautious with any prospect who is below AA, just due to the level and what can happen between then and reaching the show, but adding this type of pitching depth to the low minors is nice.

I’m just gonna say it, this trade is a steal.  An absolute steal.  What the Mariners were thinking in giving up this much for Wilson and Snell is beyond me.  Don’t take my word for it though, there are people who know way more about baseball than I do who like this deal for the Pirates.  Just one example,  Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com says that “Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal.”

After the game, a second deal was made sending all-star 2B Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for AA pitcher Tim Alderson.  Alderson was rated in January by Baseball America as the giants #4 prospect in a loaded system.  Alderson was the giants #1 pick in 2007 and is considered to be an A+ pitching prospect.  While he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys (202 K’s in 249 career minor lague innings) he also doesn’t walk anyone (51 in the same 249 IP).  He’s also only 20 years old.  He may not be a top of the rotation starter, but might immediately be the Pirates best pitching prospect.

While Sanchez and Wilson will surely be missed, when looking at these deals in total, it seems to me the Pirates organization got drastically better today.  At 31, neither Sanchez nor Wilson was going to be around 2 or 3 years from now when the Pirates are a winning team.  On the other hand, they acquired several players today who could very easily be in Pittsburgh as part of a winning team in the near future.

Ultimately, I believe that baseball is a simple game.  We tend to over analyze, looking at lots of complicated numbers like UZR, FIP, VORP, etc.  While those numbers re great for deeper analysis, wins and losses depend on two numbers, runs scored and runs allowed.  Lets take a look at the Pirates run scoring and prevention so far in 2009 as compared to the National League Average.  In 2009, the Pirates have scored 374 runs and allowed 385.  Their Pythagorean expected record(WP^2=R^2/(R+RA)^2) is 43-45, 5 games better than their actual record of 38-50.  Going a bit further, lets compare these numbers to the National League averages.  The NL average for run scoring is 391 runs, or 4.443 runs per game (rpg).  The Pirates total of 374 runs yields a 4.261 rpg  average making them just slightly below the NL average for run scoring.  Moving on to run prevention, the NL average is 400 Runs allowed, or 4.545 runs allowed per game (rapg).  The Pirates here are just above average at 4.375 rapg.  Using all of these numbers, we can say that the Pirates run scoring and prevention is approximately the same as the NL average (I posted these same numbers on July 4th, they looked a lot better then).  The number here that has improved over last year is the run prevention.  Our run production last year was just about NL average but our pitching and defense was atrocious, allowing a full 135 runs more than the NL average.  The question, then, is why?

In order to answer that, lets start with the defense.  Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is considered to be the most advanced defensive metric, at least of those that are publicly available.  Ill let fangraphs.com, which is where I get most of my stats from, explain.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.

So what does UZR say about the 2009 Pirates defense?  In short, that it has been very good.  There are 5 positions (of 7 possible, catcher and pitcher are excluded) where the Pirates regular at that position is in the top 4 in the NL.  Jack Wilson is first in UZR among NL shortstops.  The now departed Nyjer Morgan is first among left fielders.  Freddy Sanchez is 3rd among second baseman.  Finally Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche are 4th at their positions, right field and third base respectively.  Of those five, only Wilson and Sanchez spent the majority of last season in Pittsburgh, but those two have both improved over last year.  Wilson’s UZR in 2008 was 9.7, it’s 10.6 this year.  Sanchez is even more impressive going from a  -1.6 last year to a 3.5 so far in 2009.  That leaves only Adam LaRoche at first and the McLouth/McCutchen collective in center as below average defensively for their position.  With that type of defense behind our throw to contact pitching staff, its quite easy to see why the run prevention has been so much better in ‘09 than it was in ‘08.

Looking at those numbers, one might even conclude that he only difference this eyar is the defense, but the Pitching staff has been better too.  Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is used to measure a pitchers approximate ERA, based only on what he can control, essentially strikeouts, walks, and home runs.  In 2009, the Pirates FIP as a staff is 4.47, in 2008 it was 4.84.  Looking at specific players, Zach Duke went from a 4.40 in ‘08 to a 4.11 in ‘09.  Paul Maholm went from a 4.15 in ‘08 to a 3.55 in ‘09.  All of this leads one to the inevitable conclusion that despite the lack of evidence in pure wins and losses, the Pirates pitching and defense is vastly improved this year compared to last.  While one might expect the defense to regress some in the second half due to the trade of Tony Plush and possible future trades of Jack and Freddy, the pitching is likely to still be there, and it might even get better if Chaz Morton can be consistent.

So then, that just leaves the run production.  As I said earlier, both last year and so far this year, our run production has been right around league average.  Offensively, despite many of the actual players being different, its the same team with a more doubles and fewer home runs.  In 2008, The Buccos slash stats read 258./320/.403.  In 2009, its a very similar .261/.326/.396.  I’m honestly not quite sure what to expect here in the second half.  One could reasonably expect the power numbers to get a bit better.  With the return of Doumit, Moss finding the power stroke he showed in the minors, and the acquisition of Lastings Milledge, that’s certainly possible.  The counter to that is that Doumit’s injury is likely to sap power for the rest of the year, it’s hardly a guarantee Moss will find his power stroke, and that Adam LaRoche is likely to be traded at some point.  I guess what I’m saying is look for this to stay relatively constant, with some small regression possible depending on what trades are made.

The short version of all that.  Defense and Pitching good.  Offense OK.  All could get worse due to trades.  So lets take a look ahead, see if we can’t make some prediction about who is likely to go and not go.  Here is the basic list of possibilities, in no particular order, as I see it today.

• Jack Wilson has a huge option for next year which will not be picked up.  He is, for all intents and purposes a free agent.
• Freddy Sanchez also has a huge option, but his is vesting if he makes the all-star team (he did) and makes 600 Plate Appearances (he will).  Freddy then is not a free agent, but he is also going to make more next year than the Pirates would want to pay a 32 year old second baseman.
• Adam LaRoche, a notorious second half hitter, is a free agent.
• Left handed set up man John Grabow is a free agent, but likely a type A, which means is we don’t trade him,a nd then he signs with another team this off season, we get a first round pick.
• Zach Duke is a good candidate for sell high.
• There have been some rumors flying around of Matt Capps, but that would not really be a sell high as his ERA is 6.21 right now

So who among that group goes, and who stays (Warning: wild rampant, unfounded speculation ahead).  For starters, I don’t expect Capps to go unless we are overwhelmed with an offer.  The same more or less goes for Duke, with the difference being that Duke is more likely to go because he has more value right now and thus offers are more likely to come in for him.  Moving to guys a little more likely to go, Grabow is an interesting case.  On the one hand, type A free agent status is far from guaranteed.  But on the other, with Sean Burnett in Washington he is our only remaining left handed reliever who isn’t a rule 5 rookie named Donnie Veal.  With a gun to my head, I guess I’d predict he stays, but I’m confident in that one.

Now we get to the interesting ones, Freddy, Jack, and Adam.  Lets get Adam out of the way first because he is the most likely to go.  If we can find someone to give us something of value, Adam LaRoche is as good as gone.  I’ve heard teams don’t want to take on his taking on his 7 million dollar salary, and coming into the break he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn, but there’s enough teams with holes at playoff chances and holes at first base, and he has enough of a second half track record, that I’d be shocked if he is in Pittsburgh at season’s end.

That leaves just the two middle infielders.  If you listened to the Neal Huntington show this Sunday, he talked about these two and the trade possibilities at length.  What he essentially said is that rather than pay almost 15 Million for an aging middle infield, it would make more fiscal sense to try to reduce that number and spend the differential elsewhere, say on a corner outfielder with some pop.  While its possible to envision a scenario where the Pirates keep Freddy and sign Jack as a free agent for something along the lines of 2 years, 3 million a year, I think if you take Huntington’s words at face value, at least one, if not both, are gone.  We don’t have any internal options at short who are even close to major league ready.  It is entirely plausible to think we could decline his option and then resign him for something along the lines of a 2 year deal at about 3 million a year.  I’m gonna predict both.  The Pirates seem desperate to get Delwyn Young’s bat in the lineup.  Making room for him at second by trading Sanchez makes sense I guess, but he is a nightmare defensively, and I’m not convinced that can be fixed, but at this point it seems pretty likely to happen.  My guess for short is that a shortstop prospect who is near major league ready is acquired in a trade, thus allowing us to part ties with Jack Wilson.  If this hypothetical prospect never comes, expect Jack to be kept til years end.

April 13th Zach Duke pitches a complete game 4 hitter as part of 7-0 blanking of the Astros that moves the Pirates to an early 4-3 record.  Duke’s re-emergence as a solid starting pitcher has been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far.  A few weeks ago, I wrote that I don’t think Duke will ever return to the pitcher he was in 2005, basing this on his BABIP and other peripheral numbers.  While some regression seems to be due, he has pitched very well this year.  The fact that he was named as an all-star alternate just shows how far he has come this season, lets hope he can keep that up in the second half and beyond.

April 21st It is announced that Ryan Doumit will need surgery to heal his ailing wrist and will be out 8-10 weeks.  Doumit, The Pirates starting catcher and cleanup hitter, finally returned this past Friday.  His shoes have been filled quite admirably by backups Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz.  So well, in fact, that moving Doumit to right field in order to keep his bat in the lineup and save him from some wear and tear has to at least be considered.  Neil Huntington is adamant that Doumit is the Pirates catcher, so in the near term at least, don’t expect it to happen.  But the emergence of Diaz and JJ has created a bit of a logjam at catcher.  Certainly, its a nice problem to have.

May 10th The Pirates lose to The Mets 8-4, the last loss in an 8 game losing streak and a 1-12 stretch that began in late April.  To me, this was unquestionably the low point of the season.  Not that I had expectations of greatness coming in, but this was the point where I realized this was not the year.  Less than a month later, Neil Huntington would make that more or less official.

June 4th The Pirates send Nate McLouth to the Atlanta Braves for AAA starter Charlie Morton and 2 lower level prospects, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez.  In a related move, they call up CF Andrew McCutchen.  This trade has been dissected to no end now, but looking back, one thing seems clear.  If McCutchen and Morton continue to develop (I’m ignoring Locke and Hernandez due to their youth), this deal made the Pirates a better team not only next year and beyond, but this year as well.

June 25th Ian Snell, in the midst of a very frustrating up and down season is optioned to AAA Indianapolis.  Making it even more frustrating, Snell strikes out 17 Toledo Mud Hens just a few days later.  You hate to say never, but given some of Neil Huntington’s comments following the demotion, I don’t expect to see Snell in a Pirates uniform ever again.

June 30th After trading Nate McLouth to begin the month, the Pirates bookend it by consummating two deals on this day.  The second (and more compelling) of the two trades sends Nyjer Morgran and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan.  We can’t really begin to analyze this trade until Milledge makes an appearance in a Pirates uniform, but what we can say is that the Pirates will miss Tony Plush defensively.  The sample size since the trade is too small to make any conclusions, but one of the ongoing positive story lines of this years team has been the defense and run prevention, and Morgan was clearly a part of that.

July 3rd and 8th On the 3rd Charlie Morton tosses 6 strong shutout innings in Miami in a 7-4 win.  5 days later Morton only lasts 4 innings in a 5-0 loss at Houston.  These 2 starts show the good and the bad of Charlie Morton.  The start on the 3rd was Morton’s first win in a Pirates uniform and displayed to everyone just how strong his stuff can be.  Against Houston though, bad doesn’t begin to describe it, as he was hit hard seemingly from the get go.  Clearly Morton has the stuff to get big league hitters out, but clearly he needs to be more consistent.  As I mentioned earlier, his development is one of the keys to the success of the McLouth trade and something to keep an eye on in the second half.

July 11th In the 2nd to last game of the first half, the Pirates lose 8-7 in Philadelphia.  Heading into the bottom of the 9th, they hold a 7-3 lead, with a 98% chance of winning the game.  Closer Matt Capps gives up a lead-off HR en route to 6 hits, 2 walks and 5 earned runs against only one out.  The pirates would also lose the next day to conclude the first half on a 3-11 stretch, leaving just about the worst taste possible in your mouth as we go into the break.

So that’s it, The Pirates first half in a nutshell.  Two trades, two losing streaks, the Ian Snell saga, the catching situation, the return of Zach Duke, and the team defense.  Rest assured there was winning too, but there really weren’t any winning streaks of note.  Feel free to leave it in the comments if you think there’s any major dates or story lines I missed.  As I said at the top, look for the second part of my first half review tomorrow or the next day.  Its sure to include lots of statistics, and also a bit of a look ahead at what I expect to see from now until October 4th in Cincinnatti.

First the Hinske deal.  Eric Hinske was on a one year contract, he’s 32, and he was hardly playing (only 106 ABs so far this year).  He was distinctly not part of the future of this team.  To get anything in exchange for him is a win, even if we did have to cover about half of his remaining salary, sending the Yanks $400k.  In return we got 2 prospects, both currently playing A ball.  Eric Fryer is a 23 year old outfielder currently playing at high A Tampa Bay and will be assigned to Lynchburg.  Last year at low A West Virginia, then part of the Brewers farm system, he hit .355 with 26 2Bs and 10 Hrs in 104 games.  So far this year in Tampa he has hit .250 with 2 dingers.  He has played mostly left field, but can also play behind the plate.  Casey Erickson is a left handed pitcher, and will be assigned to low A West Virginia.  In 21 appearances with Charleston, Erickson has gone 3-3 with a 2.25 ERA.

I love this trade, absolutely love it.  While neither of the prospects we got in return is considered to be an impact level player, this trade characterizes what this front office is doing right.  Neal Huntington never stops, he never settles.  He continues to add pieces and organizational depth, taking advantage of every possible opportunity to do so.  Eric Hinske is a good guy and a nice player, but he was never going to be a part of the future of this club.  Instead of just letting him play out his contract here and lose him at years end, NH went out and made a move to get something in return, even if its small.  For a team in situation the Pirates are in, these are the kinds of moves that need to be made.  If either of these guys turns out to be anything at the big league level, this trade is a win.

Of these 2 moves though, the one more likely to have a long term impact is the Nyjer Morgan trade.  Frankly, I’m still not sure how I feel about this one.  Nyjer is one of my favorite players on the buccos roster this year.  His glove is a thing of beauty.  His interviews are fun to listen to, and the way he plays the game, you can tell he’s having fun out there.  For evidence of that, just go back to the game last week where he was mic’d up.  It was very entertaining to say the least.  But he is also very limited offensively, and at 29 he’s not likely to ever develop into much more than what he is now.  Along with Nyjer, the Pirates sent Sean Burnett, a pitcher who has done a very nice job in making the transition from being a starter into the bullpen.

In return, the Pirates received Lastings Milledge, a player who seems to have been a top prospect and ready to break out, first with the Mets, now with the Nats, since about the turn of the century.  Milledge has career numbers of .261/.326/.400 for an OPS of .726.  While these numbers don’t really jump off the page, the indications are that he has the tools to do much more than that.  He has definite baggage and character issues that have followed him, and from all accounts that seems to be what have prevented him from becoming the player his skills indicate he can be.  You may remember, for example, that after he hit his first career homer, he was criticized for high-fiving a fan when returning to the field for the next half inning.  The point is this guy is ultra talented, but also, ultra risky.  At 24, he is also five years younger than Morgan, which could make him part of the outfield of the future.  However, I should balance that by saying he has more Major League service time, and will be arbitration eligible after this season. (EDIT: It seems this is not true.  Due to the service time Milledge has missed with injuries, he will not be arbitration eligible for another year, after the 2010 season and not before.)  The Nats also sent over Right handed reliever Joel Hanrahan.  Hanrahan has a career ERA of 5.30, 7.71 this year. Neither of those numbers looks good.  I’m not quite sure what to make of the reliever swap here.  I don’t really know much of anything about Hanrahan, aside from seeing his numbers.  I believe he was given a shot at the Nats closer job this year and blew it.  Burnett seems to have developed into a solid reliever, lefty specialist, but frankly that’s not a big piece in this deal, and long term it probably won’t have a ton of impact.  This trade will ultimately be judged on Milledge for Morgan.

So, considering all of that, I’m not sure if I like this deal.  I really haven’t seen enough of Milledge to really know how much I like him, and I have seen enough of T-Plush to know he’s the kind of player I love to watch.  It seems obvious, though, that the Pirates are getting the more talented player in this deal, at least offensively.  Based on that, and Neal Huntington’s track record making trades, I have to support this deal in principle.  It certainly seems much more likely that the Pirates can calm Milledge down, allow him to mature, and have him reach his potential than it is that Nyjer will develop into an elite player at age 30. I guess only time will tell on this one.  Either way, stay tuned, as you never know when the next time NH will make a big move, they seem to be coming almost daily now.

Starting Rotation

With Brad Lincoln’s utter dominance of AA, and recent promotion to AAA, it seems that he will be the cornerstone in the bucs rotation of the future.  Charlie Morton’s performance in Pittsburgh has been impressive so far, but it is a very small sample size.  His stuff is good enough to make one think he too is part of the future.  While neither of these two seem certain (Lincoln has yet to start in Indy, Morton has pitched 6 total innings in Pittsburgh), if 2011 or ‘12 is to be when the Pirates become competitive, these two almost certainly have to be part of the rotation then.  Beyond that though, there are far more questions than answers.

Who is the real Zach Duke?  Is it the Duke of 2005 and for stretches so far this year, or is the Zach Duke of ‘06-’08 the real one?  The answer to that question will determine if he stays or not.  I’m a big Zach Duke supporter and really wan’t to see the ‘05 Duke back.  I had him on one of my fantasy teams then, and I really want him to be a fantasy stud, and a stud for the Pirates in the near future.  But looking at the statistics, he is not the pitcher this year that he was in 2005, and that half season looks more and more like an anomaly.  In 2005, Duke had a FIP of 3.00, this year its 4.21.  In ‘05, his K/BB ration was 2.52, this year its 2.04. Finally, in 2005, Duke’s BABIP was .296, very close to the magic number of .300 that most pitchers usually regress to.  This year, its .268.  While I think its easy to use statistics to lie, and any of these numbers in isolation would not be enough to convince me, all of these numbers together have.  In 2005, Zach Duke was an incredibly effective pitcher, and hitters never really adjusted to him that season.  He regressed in the following 3 years as batters adjusted.  This year he is an improved pitcher over those 3 bad years, but his numbers this year are far better now than they almost certainly will be when the year is over, just based on a natural regression to  the mean.  Ultimately, I don’t believe Zach Duke is part of the rotation of the future.  I hope I’m wrong on this one.

Paul Maholm pitches to contact, but he’s not dominant.  I think that’s fine on a winning team if he’s the 4th starter.  When his sinker is working, he has the stuff to look very good at times, but in his last few starts his sinker has not been good, and without that hes just not a very effective pitcher.  But I do think on the whole, he is a valuable piece on the back end of a winning major league rotation.  Given that he is signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012, I think he will still be here, but that’s far from a safe bet.

That leaves 2 spots left to fill.  There are certainly pitchers already in the low levels of the system that could ultimately fill those spots, or they could be filled by players not yet in the system.  Of guys already in the system, here are 2 possible names to watch.

Jeff Locke – acquired in the McLouth trade and currently at HiA Lynchburg.  He could take one of those spots, but from what I’ve read he still has control problems, so hes too far away to project what he looks like 2 or 3 years from now.

Rudy Owens – He is putting up great numbers at LoA West Virginia this year, but its LoA.  Basically, its the same as Jeff Locke, he’s entirely too far away to project where he is 2 or 3 years from now.

Bullpen

Predicting Major League bullpen’s is an impossible task.  I don’t even want to speculate.  Danny Moskos?  Michael Dubee?  Donnie Veal?  Honestly, anything could happen here and I would not be surprised.  The one limb I’m willing to go out on here, the closer will not be Matt Capps.  He throws entirely too straight to be a dominant closer for a contending team.  While he is effective and attacks hitters, which is a nice trait in a reliever, I don’t see him as the closer beyond 2010, unless no better option develops.

Catcher

The two options here appear to be either current starter Ryan Doumit or 2009 no. 1 pick Tony Sanchez.  Doumit’s bat is a plus behind the plate.  He’s a switch hitter with power, and a career .798 OPS.  But he has also been plagued by injuries his entire career, and this season is no exception.  With Tony Sanchez considered to be very advanced defensively, and the surprising performances this year of Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he is traded this off-season or at next years trading deadline.  Anyway, it seems safe to assume, if he develops as expected, that Tony Sanchez is the catcher of the future.  I’d like to raise on more point about Doumit before moving on.  It is possible that he is moved out from behind the plate, likely to either RF or 1B.  If that happens, its possible that both Sanchez and Doumit are part of the future.

Middle Infield

The two current middle infield starters, Jack Wilson at SS and Freddy Sanchez at 2B are both, to differing degrees, being consider for trades this year.  Sanchez is a free agent after this year, with a club option for $8M that would kick in automatically if he reacher 635 PAs this year or if he makes the all-star team and has 600 ABs.  Based on his current pace, barring injury, Sanchez should hit that 635 mark and the option will kick in.  While Sanchez is a nice player (.319/.358/.493) , he is already 31 and isn’t getting any younger or better.  He is basically at his peak value, and $8 Million is a lot to pay to a player who isn’t part of the future, so I expect him to be traded either at the trade deadline or this offseason.

Wilson has seemingly been on the trade block for 3 years now, and this year is no different.  But just like years past, he is more valuable to Pittsburgh than he is to other clubs due to the dearth of options at short.  Brian Bixler has proved himself to not be an everyday Major League shortstop.  The same goes for Ramon Vazquez.  Wilson could be a free agent after this year, but the Pirates have an option for next year worth $8.4M.  Wilson’s one plus skill is his glove, and at 31, its due to decline soon, don’t expect them to pick that option up and expect him to be traded too.

So then who plays the middle infield spots in 2010, let alone 2011.  Brian Friday? eh.  Shelby Ford? blah.  Jim Negrych? maybe.  The point I’m making here is that I don’t have an answer, and there doesn’t seem to be any sort of consensus as to who fills these two spots in 2011.  This is obviously the biggest whole in the Pirates system.  This will need to be addressed before the Pirates can be a consistent contender.

Corner Infield

Pedro Alvarez is going to fill one of these 2 spots.  Some people believe his glove is good enough to stay at third base, and that’s where he will play as a bucco.  Others believe he is a suspect defensive third baseman and will have to move across the diamond to play at the big league level.  I’ve yet to see him play (I’m hoping too soon now that he’s in Altoona), so I can’t really provide any input on this question, but lets consider both possibilities.  If he has to move to first, the most likely option at third is Andy LaRoche.  He’s only 25, and after getting off to a horrendous start (.091/.167/.091 through 9 games), hes been knocking the ball all over the yard to the tune of .281/.352/.390 for the season.  If LaRoche can sunstain the average and onbase numbers, and improve a bit on the slugging, he becomes a legit bat at third and moving Alvarez to first is an easy call.  In the scenario where LaRoche’s bat continues to develop, it even seems possible that Alvarez is moved because LaRoche is blocking him.  Ultimately, Alvarez is more valuable as a third baseman than he is as a first baseman, and if he can play that position, look for him to do so.  In that scenario, even if LaRoche’s bat develops, it seems likely that he gets traded and a first baseman is found through that very speculative trade, or through some other means.  I’m going with the Alvarez/LaRoche scenario, but I’m entirely comfortable with either scenario.

Outfield

This is probably the easiest position to predict.  Andrew McCutchen is in center now, and he will be there 2 years from now.  Lets move onto the corners.  Jose Tabata, despite his crazy wife, is probably in one of the corners.  He’s only 20 now, so he isn’t yet showing the power you would like to see from a corner outfielder.  But he projects to be a solid to plus defensive outfielder with some power and I would guess he takes Tony Plush’s current spot in left.  That leaves just right field, which is a bit of a mystery, but there seem to be plenty of options.  As I said earlier, it could be Ryan Doumit.  If Brandom Moss can find his bat, it could be him.  It could also be the recently acquired Gorkys Hernandez.  There’s probably any number of other options internally, or it could be someone not yet in the Pirates system.  I’m not gonna pick a name here, its too wide open, but I think given the number of options, in the next 2 years a solid average to above average player can be found for RF.

My prediction

A starting rotation of Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Paul Maholm, and a player not yet under Pirates control (or Ross Ohlendorf, not detailed above because I’m already at 2000 words).  A lineup that includes Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Andy Laroche, Jose Tabata, Tony Sanchez,  an unnamed power hitting right fielder, and 2 middle infielders.  Add all of that up, and I think its the makings of a team that can finish above .500 and begin to contend a for division titles.