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2010 Prospect Preview, Part 2

Jan 16

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

This is part 2 of my 2010 Prospect Preview.  Part 1 can be found here.

Note: I’m using Baseball America’s top 10 prospects for ordering, and have placed my “honorable mentions” at the end of part 2.  As a point of clarification, those honorable mentions are not (necessarily) numbers 11,12,13,etc, just a number of other prospects not in the BA top 10 who I wanted to write a few words about.

7. Tim Alderson

I had the good fortune of being in Altoona for Alderson’s debut in the Pirates system last August after he was acquired from the San Francisco Giants in the Freddy Sanchez Trade.  On that particular night he was working 85-88 with his fastball and using his curveball when he got ahead in the count to get strikeouts.  Allegedly, he also throws a change-up, but it’s a pitch I never noticed on that night.

At one time, he was seen as a potential future ace (which is why many were surprised that the Pirates were able to get him for just Freddy Sanchez), but with a fastball that doesn’t even touch 90 most of time, its hard to see that happening at this point.  The velocity on his fastball has come down from where it was when he was drafted in 2007 by the Giants, which probably has led to the reduction is his strikeout numbers as well.  On the plus side though, he walks almost no one and gets a lot of ground ball outs.  As I see it, the real key to Alderson’s big league success will be his ability to develop a change-up to go along with his other 2 pitches.  If he can do that, he has the potential to be a successful number 2 or 3 starter rather than just a back of the rotation guy.

8. Zach Von Rosenberg

Von Rosenburg was a key part of the Pirates draft strategy this past June of saving money in Round 1 by taking a guy who could be signed at slot money (Tony Sanchez, see part 1 for more on him) and then spreading that wealth throughout the draft by taking tough to sign guys with a lot of upside.  ZVR was their sixth round pick and was signed for a bonus of $1.2M, late first round money.  As far as numbers go, we have to go to high school to find anything because he singed late and therefore only pitched one inning in 2009 (though it was perfect).  In his senior year at Zachary HS, he posted 0.60 ERA and struck out 141 batters in 91 innings.  He also won 4 Louisiana state championships which is, if nothing else, cool.  He throws a pretty standard 3 pitch mix (fastball, curve, change-up) but all 3 are seen as advanced pitches, especially for his age.  Looks for him start 2010 at either low or high A and move quickly (for a high school draft pick).

9. Rudy Owens

Prior to 2009, Rudy Owens had done very little to make one think he had Major League potential.  Owens was a 2006 Draft and Follow pick who spent 2007 and ‘08 posting ERAs hovering around 5 (although some of his peripheral numbers did look good).  In 2009 Owens broke out in a big way, dominating low A West Virginia for much of the season before a late call-up to Lynchburg.  On the year, he posted a 2.10 ERA and a 6.65 K/BB ratio over 124.0 IP en route to being named the Minor League pitcher of the year.  Owens has frequently been compared to Zach Duke by Pirates post-game host Rocco DeMaro, and its a comp that makes sense to me.  Both are lefties, with middling velocity on their heater (Owens FB sits 86-90 MPH) who were drafted in the later rounds.  Owens is likely to start 2010 where he left off last season at high A Lynchburg.  If he can keep the ball down in the zone more to improve on his 38% grondball rate from ‘09, he should be able to move to AA or even AAA by seasons end.

10. Gorkys Hernandez

Of all the prospects in the Pirates system, Hernandez has my favorite name.  After all, how can you not want to root for an outfielder named Gorkys?  After the name though, there isn’t a lot to love about Hernandez.  He started off the year well with Atlanta’s AA affiliate, but after coming over in the Nate McLouth trade, he struggled  mightily.  At Altoona, he only managed to hit .262, striking out 22.1% over of the time, and posting  a career low .652 OPS.  Pirates management has shown a desire to keep their outfield prospects in center as long as possible, and Hernandez offensive numbers have never profiled as a corner outfielder anyway, so I would expect Gorkys to start the year at AA until Jose Tabata heads for Pittsburgh, at which point he should move on to AAA to play center field in Indy.  If he can greatly improve his offensive numbers, there is a chance he could man a corner outfield position, but at this point I don’t have any reason to believe that would actually happen.  The best case scenario I can envision is Hernandez breaking out in 2010, both offensively and defensively, to the point where he is seen as a Major League Center fielder again.  At that point, he could be traded to another team that needs a center fielder, bringing back Pitching (or another position of need) in return.

Honorable Mentions

Argenis Diaz

When Argenis Diaz was acquired from the Red Sox in the Adam LaRoche trade, he immediately struck me as being awfully similar to Jack Wilson.  I could explain, but I’d rather let Marc Hulet from Fangraphs do that:

Diaz…has the upside of… Jack Wilson….[H]is value is tied solely to his glove, as he’s an above-average defensive player. With the stick, he’s probably going to produce Ramon Vazquez or Adam Everett numbers. Diaz doesn’t hit for power (.058 ISO), he doesn’t hit for average (.253 average in ‘09), he doesn’t walk (7.0 BB%) and he doesn’t steal bases (His seven steals this year are a career high). Yes, he’s only 22 but there is really nothing to build on. Not one of those four categories I mentioned has seen an improvement in four pro seasons.

So if he’s never going to hit, why am I talking about him?  One look at the shortstop situation in Pittsburgh should answer that question, as neither Bobby Crosby nor Ronny Cedeno does anything to write home about with the bat.  An injury to either one almost certainly would mean that Diaz gets called up, and even if that doesn’t happen, we’ll probably see him in September.  He’s never going to hit much, but his glove is good enough that he could be interesting as a utility infielder.  And if he can somehow get to league average with the bat (its a stretch I know) he could be a good stop gap until we can find a shortstop who isn’t one dimensional.

Danny Moskos

Ugh.  To this day, even writing about him makes me angry, as he is the epitome of everything Dave Littlefield did wrong.  But we can’t blame the player for being drafted way too early, in front of a catcher who many think will turn into a perennial all-star.  It’s really sad though, that just 2 years after being drafted #4 overall, he can’t even crack the Pirates top 10 prospects, nor does he deserve to.  His FIP last year was 4.41, his WHIP 1.45 and his K/BB ratio is closer to 1 than it is to 2.  His future at this point is in the bullpen, and it would appear he will start 2010 at AAA.  If he want’s to be anything more than a journeyman middle reliever, he’s going to have to show something that, to this point in career, he hasn’t shown.  Given where he was drafted, he will likely get ample opportunity to do so, and it will be up to him to take advantage of those opportunities.

Bryan Morris

Since coming over in July of 2008 as arguably the most highly touted piece in the Jason Bay trade, Morris has struggled mightily in the low minors.  The low point of his post-trade nose-dive coming this past July when he was suspended by the team following an in game outburst.  Morris rebounded a bit once returning from the suspension, but he still has a ways to go to prove he was a worthy return for a top flight hitter like Bay.

Looking at his 2009 splits (courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com, a resource I’ve used for many players in this series) his biggest problem seems to be the decline in his K rate and increase in walk rate.  He gets a lot of ground balls(55.8%) and doesn’t give up very many home runs(.23/9IP).  But since coming over from the Dodgers, he has walked more batters than he has struck out.  The numbers don’t lie, and the numbers say that he is having command and control problems.  He is going to start 2010 where he ended 2009, at high A Lynchburg, and if he can continue the momentum he had once coming back from suspension, I’d expect to see him at AA soon, but beyond that, where he progresses is anyone’s guess.  2010 will be his age 22 season, so AA is about the level you’d expect him to be at, but considering how highly thought of he was back in July of ‘08, its disappointing that he won’t get there until sometime this season.

Jeff Locke

Of all the Pirates pitching prospects currently in the low minors, Locke has arguably the highest upside.  Yes, I realize that Rudy Owens is in the Baseball America Top 10 and that Locke is not.  However, Owens upside is a slightly better version of Zach Duke whereas Locke has the stuff to conceivably become a number 2 or 3 starter.  His fastball touches 94(but was often clocked in the 90-92 range this season) and he uses his curve and change-up effectively.  In ‘09, Locke’s K rate was down, as was his walk rate, which leads me to believe he may have been taking something off his pitches in order to gain more control.  Despite the drop in strikeouts, Locke’s biggest problem in ‘09 seemed to be bad luck, as his cumulative BABIP for the year was .363, well below the mean of .300 that most pitchers regress towards.  Locke will start 2010 at AA, and if nothing changes for Locke except for his luck, I would expect he’ll be recognized as one of the top young arms in the system by years end.

Donnie Veal

After spending all of ‘09 in the big leagues (due to his status as a Rule V draft pick) Veal isn’t technically a “prospect” at this point.  But after his impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League(3-1, 2.14 ERA, 22 K’s 7 BB’s) and the fact that he will likely begin 2010 as a starter in AAA, I thought he was worth mentioning.  As impressive as Veal was in the AFL, there just isn’t a lot in Veal’s minor league track record to make me believe he can ever become more than back of the rotation filler.

Despite that grim projection though, I think Veal represents the kind of upside teams like the Pirates should be acquiring and developing.  He was acquired cheaply, hid in the bullpen and DL for a season, and now will go to AAA to see if there is anything there.  If not, the investment in Veal was small, and doesn’t hurt the franchise in the long term.  And if it turns out Veal can be a useful player, either as a long reliever or a starter, then Neal Huntington looks like a genius.

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2010 Prospect Preview, Part 1

Jan 6

Posted by Sean H. Steimer | No Comments

When I started this blog back in May of the past year, I really had no idea what it would become.  All I knew was that I was a Pirates fan with something to say, and I wanted an outlet for that.  As the season went on I wrote mostly about trades, transactions and big moments.  As we head into 2010, I have 2 major things goals, resolutions if you will, for this blog.  The first is that I want to post more often.  This one should be easy.  I have a 20 game ticket plan for 2010 which should very naturally lead to me writing more often and about more varied subjects.  The second resolution is that I want to focus more on the minor league system.  I’ve thought a lot about how I want to do this.  There are several Pirates blogs that do daily prospect updates during the season.  Frankly they do a great job and I don’t want to just duplicate that effort.  What I think I’m going to do is weekly prospect round ups, providing numbers and a bit of analysis.  Doing this on a weekly basis, rather than daily, will allow me to keep things a bit more big picture and keep small blips in perspective.  So with that in mind, I’m going to make my first (long) post of 2010 a prospect roundup.  The idea here is that I’d like to establish a baseline for all the major prospects whom I intend to follow as 2010 progresses. My goal is not to hit on every major prospect as that would take entirely too long.   But I do want to hit all of the high notes, say the top 10, plus a few others who I find interesting.  You can consider this post (and part 2 to come along in a few days) the first in a series of 2010 season preview posts.  The others though, I will write much later, once the roster and lineup for 2010 are more solidified.  With that in mind, lets talk prospects.

Note: I’m using Baseball America’s top 10 prospects for ordering, and have placed my “honorable mentions” at the end of part 2.  As a point of clarification, those honorable mentions are not (necessarily) numbers 11,12,13,etc, just a number of other prospects not in the BA top 10 who I wanted to write a few words about.

1. Pedro Alvarez

When you look at the Pirates system, there is Pedro Alvarez, then everyone else.  Not that there aren’t other promising prospects, its just that Pedro’s potential is so great, it outshines everything else in the system.  Alvarez is a slugging third baseman who was drafted in the 1st round by the Pirates in June of 2008.  He would miss the remainder of that season in a contract dispute and made his professional debut in 2009.  Prior to Spring training last year, it was reported he was out of shape, and after a slow start at High A Lynchburg, there were some concerns that he may be slower to develop than everyone was expecting.  Pedro would eventually turn it on and be promoted AA, finishing with a total line for the season of .288/.378/.535.  He would also slug 27 home runs and add 32 doubles over 542 PA in 2009.

As we began this off season, there were concerns his body would prevent him from staying at third and instead force him to move across the diamond to first base in order to get to Pittsburgh.  He has spent the offseason training at the Atheletes’ Performance Institute which should lead to him reporting for spring training in much better shape than last year, and hopefully, a very productive 2010 from the young slugger.  I expect his 2010 to look much like last years Pirates rookie sensation, Andrew McCutchen.  He will wow people in the spring, start the year at AAA Indianapolis, get called up in June or July, and compete for the rookie of the year.

If this comes to fruition, the only question left to be answered will be if he can stay at the hot corner for years to come.  Having seen him play in person once last season in Altoona (granted, very small sample size), he looked sluggish at third and didn’t seem to have the kind of range you’d like to see in your everyday third basemen.  So I’m skeptical of his ability to stay there long term, and doubt he’ll ever win a gold glove or post impressive UZR/150 numbers.  But I’m not an expert, and all the prospect gurus seem to think he’ll have enough leather to stay at third for at least a few years before moving across the diamond to first base, which is good enough for me.

2. Jose Tabata

Jose Tabata is a very interesting case.  If it weren’t for Andrew McCutchen’s ominous presence in center field at PNC Park for the foreseeable future, I’d be a lot higher on him than I am.  But we can’t just ignore McCutchen’s existence, which means that in order for Tabata to come to Pittsburgh, he has to play a corner outfield position.  The problem here is that the ideal corner outfielder has considerably more power than Tabata has ever shown in the minor leagues.  Case in point; In 2009 split between AA and AAA, Tabata managed a grand total of 5 home runs.  On the other hand, Tabata has been playing at levels above his age for his entire minor league career (Tabata will start 2010, his age 21 season, at AAA).  In addition, power is often one of the last things to develop for a prospect, so there is at least some hope that Tabata’s power numbers will come along as he ages.  One last thing to keep in mind with Tabata before we move on.  Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington has publicly stated that he prefers to have a center field type defender manning the gigantic patch of grass that is left field at PNC Park.  Think Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen for some context of what this kind of defensive alignment looks like.  If Tabata’s power never develops, but his defense in left is far, far above average, his overall value in terms of runs and wins against replacement could wind up being in the positives which could justify an outfield with Tabata in left, McCutchen in center, and someone who can mash in right.

3. Tony Sanchez

Tony Sanchez was drafted by the Pirates #4 overall out of Boston College this past June and the pick was widely criticized as being a reach.  Sanchez was quick to sign and went on to make a rather impressive professional debut in 2009.  Spending most of his time at low A West Virginia, Sanchez posted a .409 OBP and a .949 OPS.  While only time will tell if his numbers at the plate will translate as he moves to higher levels of the minor leagues and eventually to the bigs, the pro debut certainly gives me reason to believe in Sanchez.  In addition to the bat, Sanchez is considered to be very advanced defensively as a catcher.  With such a small professional sample size, there is only so much analysis we can do on Sanchez at this point, but as the 2010 season moves along, Sanchez may very well be one of the most interesting names to watch.  He will likely start the year at high A.  If he hits well there, moves up to AA and does the same, we could easily see Sanchez as the starting catcher sometime in 2011.  On the other hand, if at some point this year the bat starts to flounder, we might be waiting a bit longer to see Sanchez behind the plate for the Pirates.

4. Brad Lincoln

At number 4 we find the first pitcher among the Pirates top prospects, Brad Lincoln.  Lincoln was the Bucs #1 pick in 2006 but missed all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.  He came back in 2008, but really seemed to breakout this past summer, regaining his pre-surgery form.  He excelled in Altoona for most of the summer before a late season call-up to AAA Indy.  After the call-up to Indy he did struggle a bit, but not so much to make me overly concerned.  Lincoln’s best pitch coming out of college was his curve ball, and while I didn’t see him pitch this year, it’s been said that the life on his curve was back this season, which is good news for his long term outlook.  He works his fastball in the 90-95 range, mixing in his plus curve and his change-up as well.  The 2 knocks on Lincoln are that he doesn’t get enough ground balls and that he allows too many home runs.  Both are, in theory at least, symptoms of him not working down in the zone enough.  If he can resolve that issue, its quite possible he’ll be on the hill at PNC this summer as soon as June or July.

5. Chase D’Arnaud

Chase D’Arnaud is the eventual heir to the middle infield throne held for so long by Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson.  Where he ends up playing when he gets to Pittsburgh probably depends as much on need as it does on D’Arnaud’s ability, as he can play short, second, or even third base if needed.  D’Arnaud handles the bat quite well for a middle infielder, posting a .398 OBP and an .852 OPS in 2009 split between West Virginia and Lynchburg, his first full season of pro ball.  In addition to the bat, D’Arnaud also showed decent speed in ‘09 by stealing 31 bases on 39 tries.  While he may still be 2 or more season away from being in a Pirates uniform, there seems to be plenty of optimism about his ability to be a productive infielder for the Buccos for a long time once he makes it to Pittsburgh.

6. Starling Marte

Marte is, far and away, the least major league ready of the 6 prospects I’ve dug into in part 1.  He was a 2007 international free agent signing(relatively cheaply at $85K) out of the Dominican Republic and made his North American debut in 2009.  The problem with profiling a guy like Marte is that I have no idea what to make of his 2007 and 2008 numbers in the Dominican Summer League.  But taking those away leaves only one season, 54 games, played at low A West Virginia, and frankly that’s not a lot to go on.  For what it’s worth, everyone who knows about these things is really high on Marte, and all indications are that he will continue to show more and more power as he continues to develop.  He’s a bit of a free swinger, so his walk rate, and in turn his OBP is a bit lower than what you’d like to see.  This is a habit, though, that many players from the Dominican exhibit early in their pro careers, so its pretty easy to assume he’ll eventually learn a bit more patience at the plate.  Overall, I’d expect to see Marte as a prospect for several years to come, but he may eventually be a shining example of what a small investment in Latin America can yield.

That’s it for today, but I expect to get part 2 finished and published in a couple of days, so look for that coming soon.

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