This is part 2 of my 2010 Prospect Preview. Part 1 can be found here.
Note: I’m using Baseball America’s top 10 prospects for ordering, and have placed my “honorable mentions” at the end of part 2. As a point of clarification, those honorable mentions are not (necessarily) numbers 11,12,13,etc, just a number of other prospects not in the BA top 10 who I wanted to write a few words about.
7. Tim Alderson
I had the good fortune of being in Altoona for Alderson’s debut in the Pirates system last August after he was acquired from the San Francisco Giants in the Freddy Sanchez Trade. On that particular night he was working 85-88 with his fastball and using his curveball when he got ahead in the count to get strikeouts. Allegedly, he also throws a change-up, but it’s a pitch I never noticed on that night.
At one time, he was seen as a potential future ace (which is why many were surprised that the Pirates were able to get him for just Freddy Sanchez), but with a fastball that doesn’t even touch 90 most of time, its hard to see that happening at this point. The velocity on his fastball has come down from where it was when he was drafted in 2007 by the Giants, which probably has led to the reduction is his strikeout numbers as well. On the plus side though, he walks almost no one and gets a lot of ground ball outs. As I see it, the real key to Alderson’s big league success will be his ability to develop a change-up to go along with his other 2 pitches. If he can do that, he has the potential to be a successful number 2 or 3 starter rather than just a back of the rotation guy.
8. Zach Von Rosenberg
Von Rosenburg was a key part of the Pirates draft strategy this past June of saving money in Round 1 by taking a guy who could be signed at slot money (Tony Sanchez, see part 1 for more on him) and then spreading that wealth throughout the draft by taking tough to sign guys with a lot of upside. ZVR was their sixth round pick and was signed for a bonus of $1.2M, late first round money. As far as numbers go, we have to go to high school to find anything because he singed late and therefore only pitched one inning in 2009 (though it was perfect). In his senior year at Zachary HS, he posted 0.60 ERA and struck out 141 batters in 91 innings. He also won 4 Louisiana state championships which is, if nothing else, cool. He throws a pretty standard 3 pitch mix (fastball, curve, change-up) but all 3 are seen as advanced pitches, especially for his age. Looks for him start 2010 at either low or high A and move quickly (for a high school draft pick).
9. Rudy Owens
Prior to 2009, Rudy Owens had done very little to make one think he had Major League potential. Owens was a 2006 Draft and Follow pick who spent 2007 and ‘08 posting ERAs hovering around 5 (although some of his peripheral numbers did look good). In 2009 Owens broke out in a big way, dominating low A West Virginia for much of the season before a late call-up to Lynchburg. On the year, he posted a 2.10 ERA and a 6.65 K/BB ratio over 124.0 IP en route to being named the Minor League pitcher of the year. Owens has frequently been compared to Zach Duke by Pirates post-game host Rocco DeMaro, and its a comp that makes sense to me. Both are lefties, with middling velocity on their heater (Owens FB sits 86-90 MPH) who were drafted in the later rounds. Owens is likely to start 2010 where he left off last season at high A Lynchburg. If he can keep the ball down in the zone more to improve on his 38% grondball rate from ‘09, he should be able to move to AA or even AAA by seasons end.
10. Gorkys Hernandez
Of all the prospects in the Pirates system, Hernandez has my favorite name. After all, how can you not want to root for an outfielder named Gorkys? After the name though, there isn’t a lot to love about Hernandez. He started off the year well with Atlanta’s AA affiliate, but after coming over in the Nate McLouth trade, he struggled mightily. At Altoona, he only managed to hit .262, striking out 22.1% over of the time, and posting a career low .652 OPS. Pirates management has shown a desire to keep their outfield prospects in center as long as possible, and Hernandez offensive numbers have never profiled as a corner outfielder anyway, so I would expect Gorkys to start the year at AA until Jose Tabata heads for Pittsburgh, at which point he should move on to AAA to play center field in Indy. If he can greatly improve his offensive numbers, there is a chance he could man a corner outfield position, but at this point I don’t have any reason to believe that would actually happen. The best case scenario I can envision is Hernandez breaking out in 2010, both offensively and defensively, to the point where he is seen as a Major League Center fielder again. At that point, he could be traded to another team that needs a center fielder, bringing back Pitching (or another position of need) in return.
Honorable Mentions
Argenis Diaz
When Argenis Diaz was acquired from the Red Sox in the Adam LaRoche trade, he immediately struck me as being awfully similar to Jack Wilson. I could explain, but I’d rather let Marc Hulet from Fangraphs do that:
Diaz…has the upside of… Jack Wilson….[H]is value is tied solely to his glove, as he’s an above-average defensive player. With the stick, he’s probably going to produce Ramon Vazquez or Adam Everett numbers. Diaz doesn’t hit for power (.058 ISO), he doesn’t hit for average (.253 average in ‘09), he doesn’t walk (7.0 BB%) and he doesn’t steal bases (His seven steals this year are a career high). Yes, he’s only 22 but there is really nothing to build on. Not one of those four categories I mentioned has seen an improvement in four pro seasons.
So if he’s never going to hit, why am I talking about him? One look at the shortstop situation in Pittsburgh should answer that question, as neither Bobby Crosby nor Ronny Cedeno does anything to write home about with the bat. An injury to either one almost certainly would mean that Diaz gets called up, and even if that doesn’t happen, we’ll probably see him in September. He’s never going to hit much, but his glove is good enough that he could be interesting as a utility infielder. And if he can somehow get to league average with the bat (its a stretch I know) he could be a good stop gap until we can find a shortstop who isn’t one dimensional.
Danny Moskos
Ugh. To this day, even writing about him makes me angry, as he is the epitome of everything Dave Littlefield did wrong. But we can’t blame the player for being drafted way too early, in front of a catcher who many think will turn into a perennial all-star. It’s really sad though, that just 2 years after being drafted #4 overall, he can’t even crack the Pirates top 10 prospects, nor does he deserve to. His FIP last year was 4.41, his WHIP 1.45 and his K/BB ratio is closer to 1 than it is to 2. His future at this point is in the bullpen, and it would appear he will start 2010 at AAA. If he want’s to be anything more than a journeyman middle reliever, he’s going to have to show something that, to this point in career, he hasn’t shown. Given where he was drafted, he will likely get ample opportunity to do so, and it will be up to him to take advantage of those opportunities.
Bryan Morris
Since coming over in July of 2008 as arguably the most highly touted piece in the Jason Bay trade, Morris has struggled mightily in the low minors. The low point of his post-trade nose-dive coming this past July when he was suspended by the team following an in game outburst. Morris rebounded a bit once returning from the suspension, but he still has a ways to go to prove he was a worthy return for a top flight hitter like Bay.
Looking at his 2009 splits (courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com, a resource I’ve used for many players in this series) his biggest problem seems to be the decline in his K rate and increase in walk rate. He gets a lot of ground balls(55.8%) and doesn’t give up very many home runs(.23/9IP). But since coming over from the Dodgers, he has walked more batters than he has struck out. The numbers don’t lie, and the numbers say that he is having command and control problems. He is going to start 2010 where he ended 2009, at high A Lynchburg, and if he can continue the momentum he had once coming back from suspension, I’d expect to see him at AA soon, but beyond that, where he progresses is anyone’s guess. 2010 will be his age 22 season, so AA is about the level you’d expect him to be at, but considering how highly thought of he was back in July of ‘08, its disappointing that he won’t get there until sometime this season.
Jeff Locke
Of all the Pirates pitching prospects currently in the low minors, Locke has arguably the highest upside. Yes, I realize that Rudy Owens is in the Baseball America Top 10 and that Locke is not. However, Owens upside is a slightly better version of Zach Duke whereas Locke has the stuff to conceivably become a number 2 or 3 starter. His fastball touches 94(but was often clocked in the 90-92 range this season) and he uses his curve and change-up effectively. In ‘09, Locke’s K rate was down, as was his walk rate, which leads me to believe he may have been taking something off his pitches in order to gain more control. Despite the drop in strikeouts, Locke’s biggest problem in ‘09 seemed to be bad luck, as his cumulative BABIP for the year was .363, well below the mean of .300 that most pitchers regress towards. Locke will start 2010 at AA, and if nothing changes for Locke except for his luck, I would expect he’ll be recognized as one of the top young arms in the system by years end.
Donnie Veal
After spending all of ‘09 in the big leagues (due to his status as a Rule V draft pick) Veal isn’t technically a “prospect” at this point. But after his impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League(3-1, 2.14 ERA, 22 K’s 7 BB’s) and the fact that he will likely begin 2010 as a starter in AAA, I thought he was worth mentioning. As impressive as Veal was in the AFL, there just isn’t a lot in Veal’s minor league track record to make me believe he can ever become more than back of the rotation filler.
Despite that grim projection though, I think Veal represents the kind of upside teams like the Pirates should be acquiring and developing. He was acquired cheaply, hid in the bullpen and DL for a season, and now will go to AAA to see if there is anything there. If not, the investment in Veal was small, and doesn’t hurt the franchise in the long term. And if it turns out Veal can be a useful player, either as a long reliever or a starter, then Neal Huntington looks like a genius.